No-one can predict the party strengths in the new Northern Assembly with certainty; nor can anyone predict how many unionist members will be for or against the agreement since this will depend on who the Ulster Unionist Party constituency associations choose as their candidates. Recent elections provide some indications of how the parties may share the seats in the 108-member Assembly.
Dr Sydney Elliott, senior lecturer at the Department of Political Science at Queen's University, Belfast, has entered the psephological minefield with great caution. On the battle within unionism, he reckons that the advantage will be with whichever unionist camp can muster 30 seats or more. Based on the general election figures of 1997 he says he could foresee an Assembly where the UUP would have 39 seats, the SDLP 24, Sinn Fein 16, the DUP 16, Alliance nine, the UK Unionist Party two, and the Progressive Unionist Party two. Using the Westminster result as a guide, Dr Elliott says the UUP could end up with four of the 10 positions in the Executive to be filled under the d'Hondt system of allocation, with the SDLP getting three, Sinn Fein two, and the DUP one. The difficulty, however, is that at that election the UUP commanded over 32 per cent of the overall vote, and was by far the dominant unionist party. However, if one were to use the Forum election of 1996 as a guide, then, while the UUP would still have the majority of unionist votes, the disparity between the Unionist Yes and No camps would be much more marginal. And what about the enemies from within the UUP camp?
If the UUP does not have the majority of unionist votes, the Assembly could be terminally gridlocked right from its very opening. As a vulgar yardstick unionist parties command about 50 per cent of the overall votes. Nationalists have around 40 per cent, with Alliance and the smaller parties taking the rest.
One of the first functions of the Assembly will be to elect a chairperson, a first minister and a deputy. Under the arrangements for the Assembly this will be viewed as a "key decision" requiring cross-community support. These positions can only be created by parallel consent, i.e., a majority of members representing the unionist and nationalist designations voting in support; or by a weighted majority, i.e., 60 per cent of members present and voting, including at least 40 per cent of the nationalist and unionist designations present and voting.
In crude terms this means that if the Assembly is to function Mr Trimble must have more pro-agreement members on his team than the Rev Ian Paisley and Mr Robert McCartney have anti-agreement on theirs. Moreover, the UUP must have members in the Assembly who will not act as saboteurs. He needs members who will work the Assembly and the North-South bodies that flow from it.
Dr Elliott reckons, again in crude terms, that the "magic figure" is 30. If the anti-agreement unionist coalition can win 30 seats they can, if they want, wreck the Assembly. If Mr Trimble can get 30 "loyal" members elected then the Assembly is in business.
Dr Elliott believes the proportional representation nature of the voting system will favour Mr Trimble, rather than the unionist No campaigners. "The system tends to benefit the two largest parties, while those down the line tend to suffer quite strict justice," he says.
If correct, and if voting trends roughly follow previous patterns then this should be to the advantage of the UUP, and the SDLP - although here it cannot be ignored that Sinn Fein has been snapping at the heels of the SDLP.
He provides further comfort for Mr Trimble. "I think it must also be taken into account that there were people who voted No who were not so much concerned with the constitutional architecture of the agreement but who could not tolerate the morality aspect of it, prisoners, decommissioning and so on."
He says this group may return to the UUP camp, and accept the agreement, or possibly not even vote.
The unionist No campaign can say with certainty that, while down, they have not been routed. They reckon it's still all to play for.
There are too many imponderables to make reliable forecasts at this stage. On the ground, that's where the answer will begin to emerge in the weeks ahead as to the likely makeup of the Northern Assembly.