The "huge gift" of a vote Yes recommendation from the IFA to the EU agriculture commissioner would appear to have been withdrawn. Or has it, asks SEÁN Mac CONNELL.
HAPPINESS WOULD be too shallow a word to describe EU commissioner Mariann Fischer Boel's reaction to the Irish Farmers' Association's decision to recommend a Yes vote in the Lisbon Treaty back in January.
Commissioner Boel had made a special effort to attend the IFA's agm in Bluebell, Dublin, though it was unkindly suggested that the commissioner's career needed such a boost at that time.
"That is a huge gift for me today because it is crucial for all of us that we get a Yes vote in Ireland as, well, probably the only place where a referendum is taking place," she said.
Then she went on to say something that proved more prophetic than she might have wished: "To be honest, we all know the risk of voters voting for anything but what it is really about." She added, "It could be about pensions or any other issue which was not the core issue."
IFA president Pádraig Walshe replied to her, saying: "We will have an opportunity in less than 18 months to have local government and European elections where other issues can be addressed by voters. It is vitally important the voters address the referendum as an issue on its own and we are recommending a Yes vote to our members in this referendum."
Nearly four months later, Mr Walshe seems to have taken back the "gift", and Lisbon has now been linked to a Government commitment to use a veto in the World Trade Organisation talks.
While the organisation is not recommending a No vote, it is on record as saying that while the IFA is historically pro-European, it could not recommend a Yes vote if a WTO agreement negotiated on current terms goes ahead.
Walshe and his 80,000-strong organisation are well aware of the potency of the farming vote, which was a significant factor in the defeat of the first referendum on the Nice Treaty. Farmer hostility toward the Government then, coupled with a very low turnout on the day of just 35 per cent, led to an embarrassing defeat for the Government.
This, of course, was reversed the second time out when there was a solid farm turnout in favour of the proposition. The most recent indication of farmer intentions was found in an Irish Farmers' Journal/Red C poll published a week ago. It found that 40 per cent of farmers were likely to vote Yes and 33 per cent No, with 27 per cent in the Don't Know camp. But 76 per cent said they would take "guidance" from the IFA when making their decision.
The IFA has in the past month taken 10,000 of its own members, colleagues from the Irish Creamery Milk Suppliers' Association and Macra na Feirme on to the streets of Dublin to protest over the WTO negotiations - and there the gift was withdrawn. But there are those within the farm organisation who believe that it has painted itself into a corner not only with Brussels but with the Government as well. Speaking privately to a cross-section of serving national officers, seven out of the 12 who spoke off the record to The Irish Times said they would be voting Yes, and one of the remaining five said he would not vote.
Many non-activists I spoke to during the past week said they would wait and see before making up their minds, but here again the majority favoured Lisbon.
And even the IFA bible, the Farmers' Journal, this week carries two articles advocating a Yes vote.
Neither the ICMSA nor the Irish Cattle and Sheepfarmers' Association have given any directions to their membership. The ICMSA said it would be holding a national council meeting "closer to the time". ICSA president Malcolm Thompson said it would place the facts before its members and let them decide for themselves.