The flooding early-warning system in Dublin will help to prepare us for the climatic challenges which lie ahead. But experts warn that we are not doing enough
LAST MARCH, Dublin City Council's early flood warning system went to red alert. Sea defences were erected, mainly in Sandymount, Ringsend and Clontarf, while the Liffey Boardwalk and nine road sections around the capital were temporarily closed.
Public announcements were made, and motorists and pedestrians warned of a possible flooding risk and when precisely this might occur. The measures were taken following prompting from the new tidal flood early-warning system commissioned by Dublin City Council, which can now alert authorities up to two weeks in advance of a major risk. The defence systems are part of an overall strategy designed to limit the impact of climate change and global warming on our main urban centres. Recent experience suggests we may have some way to go before the systems in place are fully responsive to threats posed by flooding in particular.
There are those who argue we have left it a little late in Ireland to learn from international practice, where temperature rises and changing weather patterns are already having a dramatic impact on city life.
It's generally agreed, believe it or not, that summers in Ireland are getting hotter, while rainfall in winter is becoming more intense and less predictable. Our geographic position as an island nation means there's more coastline for us to protect, and many of our main urban centres fall within those coastal regions. Combine our positioning with the splurge in urban development in recent years and ongoing pressures associated with water and energy consumption, and you get a sense of the challenges ahead.
Often, the difficulty has been communicating these challenges from central government down to local authority level, ensuring that the risks are taken seriously, and effective and joined-up policies and strategies implemented to deal with them. Yet Tom Leahy, executive manager with Dublin City Council, says there are positive signs we are taking current and future climatic threats seriously.
"Currently we are preparing new emergency plans looking at identifying key risks and working out what to do if those risks are realised," he says.
"One of the main issues related to climate change . . . for us now is flooding. We are working with the HSE, Fire Services and the Garda in addressing these issues. In Dublin we have implemented a programme known as Safer , working with colleagues from the UK, Germany and Switzerland to share expertise and knowledge. The early-warning system came out of this process and we are currently addressing other infrastructural deficiencies."
Globally, the challenges are no less difficult. The continued urbanisation of humankind is making it harder for those trying to tackle the effects of climate change. Consider that 200 years ago, there was probably only one city in the world that had a million inhabitants (London) - today more than 400 cities can make that claim.
By 2030 the United Nations estimates that 60 per cent of mankind will live in cities (currently the urban-rural divide stands at 50-50), and recently, the UK's Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research felt it necessary to state that "the fate of the Earth's climate is intrinsically linked to how our cities develop over the coming decades".
As it stands, 75 per cent of the world's billion poorest humans live in urban areas. The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that in the coming years two-thirds of the growth in global electricity usage will be down to the needs of the developing world, and their cities. In other words, if we want to get serious about tackling climate change, we first need to take on our urban centres.
DR ROWAN FEALY is a researcher with the advanced Icarus (Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units) centre at NUI Maynooth and one of those responsible for ensuring Ireland anticipates the types of challenges that lie ahead. Dr Fealy and his team, including Dr John Sweeney, are involved in a whole range of projects specific to temperature rises and increased rainfall, and how that will affect both our urban and rural areas. "The temperature projection rise for Ireland is not overly significant," says Dr Fealy. "We will most likely see a two to three degree rise. But when we look at our urban centres we have to take into account what's known as the urban heat island effect.
"We've noticed that cities around the world are usually a few degrees warmer than the surrounding countryside, as buildings trap and use more energy, thereby adding to local environmental temperatures. This is an important point when we look at mortality and morbidity in cities. With the increase of heat waves and hotter days we are likely to see increasing mortality rates and Ireland is no different. Let's not forget that during the heatwave in Europe in 2003 in excess of 35,000 people died."
One of the main challenges for cities in Ireland will be the availability of water, as rising temperatures and greater demand put pressure on reserves.
Several major drainage schemes are now either underway or nearing completion, aimed at relieving the pressure on existing infrastructure, yet even in regional urban towns, such as Ennis, there has been continued issues of water quality and quantity for several years. As sea levels continue to rise, and the flash floods become more frequent, those water issues will play a larger part in city life.
Again, Dr Fealy and his team have been tracking this issue. "As the climate gets warmer, water is one of our biggest challenges, and the distribution between supply and demand is hugely unequal at present. Currently we have only 1 per cent of spare capacity in the greater Dublin region. We estimate that by the middle of 2050, we can expect rainfall down by 12 per cent in the south and 30 per cent on the east coast. All we need for a major drought is a dry summer, followed by a dry winter and then another dry summer, and we are in serious trouble."
THE SOLUTION IS to accelerate the "greening" of our urban areas, while simultaneously planning for likely climate-change effects, in the coming decades. Urban forests and gardens can help mitigate the effects of flash flooding, allowing rainfall to be absorbed into the ground (paving our driveways to accommodate cars creates less space for rainfall to permeate the surface). Planting more gardens and forests can help absorb CO2 emissions and reduce some of the worst effects of climate change. Within the urban environments, measures need to be put in place so that climatic concerns are integral to the planning processes.
Public services can play their part, with a need to look at shifting to more sustainable modes of public transport, run on hybrid or electric battery power. But are we doing enough to address the issues that lie ahead?
"Absolutely not," say Dr Fealy. "There is a lot of opinion in this area on what may happen and some great research being done by scientists and others, but little is being done that will make an effective difference on the ground. There are a number of initiatives, but I would argue that we need to see large measures being implemented, and soon."
URBAN ACTION INITIATIVES IN OTHER WORLD CITIES
All over the globe cities are adapting their infrastructure to meet the climate challenges ahead.
Freiburgin southern Germany has become the star child of the environmental movement by insisting on solar panels and other renewables in the construction of buildings. Some homes in the city require only 10 per cent of the energy consumed in the average home, while local soccer club SC Freiburg runs its floodlights largely from solar energy and power converted from wood chips.
China's government is currently turning the rural area of Wangzhuang, near Beijing, into another eco-city able to accommodate up to 300,000 residents. By 2020 the plan is to run the city largely on renewables.
In the Middle East, the emirate of Abu Dhabi, is spending €15 billion to realign itself as a major centre of green technology. The plans include a two-square-mile eco community, and running the city on energy from sun, wind and bio fuels, while water will be recycled from the sea.
In the US, Miamihas taken up gardening on a large scale and found that planting trees can help reduce air-conditioning bills in summer.
Studies show that one tree can release as much as 400l of water every day, cooling the air.
Ïn Sweden, the city of Västeråsgenerates 51 per cent of its energy from non-fossil fuel energy sources such as solar, geothermal and biomass. In the last decade it has succeeded in reducing its emissions by 24 per centon a per-capita basis.
