Impact will be worst for world's poorest countries

Analysis: The UN's dire predictions have been watered down, writes Liam Reid , Environment Correspondent, in Brussels

Analysis:The UN's dire predictions have been watered down, writes Liam Reid, Environment Correspondent, in Brussels

Despite the attempts of some to dilute its content, the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has an important and deeply worrying conclusion.

It is that the poorest and most marginalised people in the world will suffer most from the effects of climate change.

The text of the 23-page summary of the report was finally agreed shortly after 9am in the Charlemagne building in Brussels yesterday after four days of tortuous negotiations. These took place between the scientists who wrote the full report and the bureaucrats representing the various governments.

READ MORE

Key scientific conclusions and findings, contained in the 1,500- page report, were omitted from the summary as some governments, notably the US and other fossil fuel-rich nations, questioned the validity of the science.

Estimates on the billions of people to be affected by water shortages and on the hundreds of millions likely to be affected by floods were taken out at the demand of these countries.

Graphs linking certain levels of greenhouse gas emissions to widespread extinction of animals, droughts and disease were cut to appease these governments who have adopted a sceptical attitude to climate change.

What is significant about the report is the "high" or "very high" confidence the scientists have in the predictions. From their point of view, this is entering the realm of betting certainties.

Regardless of the scientists' confidence, many of these specific predictions, based on detailed and precise scientific work, were excluded from the summary report.

In the wake of the report's publication, some scientists have expressed frustration that some of their objective findings were queried by bureaucrats with a political agenda, who had an effective veto on what is contained in the summary report. This is the most important part of the report as it is the one that will be read by most decision-makers around the globe. It is, therefore, easy to understand the frustration of some of the scientists.

However, this is the basis on which the IPCC operates. The reports of the panel are accepted by all member countries. For some, this is extremely important as it attaches significant political clout to the report.

Without the involvement of the governments, it would be just another scientific report that could be ignored, IPCC supporters argue. Even in the absence of some of the scientific evidence, the summary document is still very strong, they say.

The report says the impact of climate change is already in evidence around the globe, that the change is very likely to have been caused by human activity.

It pinpoints who is going to be most affected by future climate change, pointing out that some impacts are now unavoidable even if emissions are reduced.

For those in charge at the IPCC, getting more than 150 nations to agree to a report that states the above is an achievement to be proud of.

This report is the second in a series of four by the body this year.

The first, on the evidence of climate change, was published in February. The third, on the measures that need to be taken to lessen its impact, will be published next month, while a final "synthesis" report will be completed in the autumn.

Work on yesterday's report began five years ago and has involved contributions from more than 1,500 scientists.

It was carried out by what is known as the Working Group II, which consists of about 200 academics and researchers.

They collated information from 29,000 sources in relation to the natural world, from habitats in the Arctic to the leafing of trees in Europe.

Ninety per cent of the evidence pointed one way: climate change had already begun to impact on the earth.

This evidence also backed up previous estimates of the impact of greenhouse gas emissions, and therefore, that the changes were not random or naturally occurring, but caused by man's impact on the environment.

From this the scientists were able to generate extremely reliable predictions of what other impacts there are going to be around the globe.

These include the prediction that 100 million people in coastal areas could lose their homes through flooding from 2080. The work predicts specific areas to be most at risk, including the "mega" deltas of Asia such as the Ganges, and small island nations in tropical locations.

Other estimates include the likelihood that if temperatures increase beyond three degrees, agricultural productivity will decline.

Prof Bob Fitzharris of the University of Otago in New Zealand was one of the lead authors of the report and believes it shows that developed nations in moderate climates, such as Ireland and New Zealand, will suffer the least impacts. Because they are wealthy, they can adapt.

"We're in a position where we can deal with the impacts of climate change," says Prof Fitzharris. "But if you're a poor farmer with a few cattle on the dry margins of the Sahara Desert, you don't have many options."