Growth in transport, notably car use, is set to become the single biggest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. It also puts in danger key targets for reduced pollution under the Kyoto agreement, according to the latest European Environment Agency report.
Some success has been achieved in reducing pollutant emissions from vehicles, but with the projected increases in car usage the EU is likely to fail to meet its obligations under the UN protocol aimed at reversing climate change.
Ireland is matching the kind of increases already reflected across most of Europe. Passenger and freight movements are projected to increase by up to 50 per cent by 2010, the EEA project manager, Mr Jock Martin, noted at a briefing in Dublin yesterday. Increased transportation is leading to more energy consumption and generation of carbon dioxide.
The EU had aimed to stabilise emissions by 2000 at the 1990 level, and reduce greenhouse gases up to 2012 by 8 per cent. But the EEA concludes, based on figures up to 1997, there will be a 6 per cent increase by 2012, wiping out initial decreases achieved in the early 1990s. "Transport is threatening Europe's ability to meet Kyoto targets," he said.
Under the transport heading, the biggest single contributor will be an increase in road traffic. While environmental taxation on vehicles and fuels is now widespread, "road pricing" in the form of tolls was considered an important option to reduce car use, Mr Martin added.
The report, Environment in the EU at the turn of the century, indicates Ireland is recovering only about 40 per cent of the costs associated with transport by way of revenue-gathering (this takes into account factors such as noise, accidents and air pollution).
Mr Martin said anecdotal evidence, including that of lifestyle trends, confirmed the outlook. This was reflected, for example, by Spain recording a 40 per cent increase in registration of large four-wheel drive (off-road) vehicles during a three-month period recently.
The report cites a failure to "delink" growth in GDP from various environmental pressures, notably climate change, waste generation, and generation of toxic chemicals, even if some improvements have been made in reducing nitrogen oxide and sulphur dioxide emissions.
"The EU environment will remain under serious pressure from a range of activities: transport, industrial production, leisure activities and even individual lifestyle. Because they are interconnected, they will have a knock-on effect on each other," it says.
Allied to economic growth, waste is set to increase by 10 per cent (and not stabilise, as previously agreed), and energy consumption will increase by 15 per cent. With more households, more mobility and more transport, a 30 per cent increase in passenger car transport is foreseen over the 15-year period from 1995.
The report, nonetheless, notes a significant reduction in generation of ozone-depleting substances and some progress, particularly within industry, in becoming "eco-efficient". But increased production and consumption could eliminate the gains.
The EEA spells out "considerable uncertainties", due either to a lack of data in some areas (such as on soils, biodiversity and pesticides in groundwater) or to "uncertainties about future socio-economic developments". These were making future projects difficult. It puts development of genetically modified organisms in this category and concludes GMOs are "beset by scientific uncertainty".
