The chances of an independent election candidate winning a Dáil seat do not depend upon the size of their constituency. In fact, they are more likely to win in a three-seat constituency than in a four or five-seat constituency, a political studies conference heard yesterday. John Downesand Steven Carrollreport.
However, Liam Weeks, of University College Cork, also argued that this appears to go against the popular belief among potential candidates.
He noted that almost three times as many independents run in five-seat constituencies compared to three-seat constituencies.
The research analysed the performance of independent candidates at Dáil elections between 1948 and 2002. It notes the largest proportion of independent victories have come in single-seat contests at by-elections.
Mr Weeks said that since the 1980s, research shows that independent candidates have been more successful in three-seat constituencies than their four or five-seat equivalents.
However, according to the research, independent candidates actually suffer rather than profit from vote transfers, because although they tend to receive a disproportionately high number of lower preferences, most of these do not come into play in the election count.
Similarly, it argues that the Irish system of proportional representation by single transferable vote tends to help "centrist candidates" rather than more extremist candidates.
This is because under the Irish system "tactical" voting, for example voting for a candidate who is deemed more likely to win rather than your preferred candidate, is not necessary.
Centrist candidates profit from transfers because supporters of a particular party are more willing to give them a lower preference than a candidate from a rival party.
"Their only problem is benefiting from these, as they need to receive enough first preference votes to remain in the electoral contest when such transfers are distributed," Mr Weeks states in his paper on the issue.
In a separate address, former taoiseach Dr Garret FitzGerald said leaders should not hesitate to refer complex Bills through the courts because "reference procedure is positive and not a threat to the power of the government".
Dr FitzGerald also discussed the unique position Ireland will have in ratifying the EU reform treaty by referendum.
He said it is in this position because the Opposition here has always been "deeply suspicious" of the Government passing legislation. However, he added that Irish people are far "less badly informed" on such matters of policy than those in many other EU countries on account of this system.