Independents lose seats but are set to gain in influence

Analysis: Unaligned TDs can punch above their weight, writes Miriam Donohoe , Political Staff

Analysis:Unaligned TDs can punch above their weight, writes Miriam Donohoe, Political Staff

The Independent TDs may have seen their numbers slashed from 14 to five in the general election, but they find themselves in a position of huge strength with Bertie Ahern eyeing them as an option to help him form the next government along with the PDs.

The Independents had little say in the last Dáil as they were not needed to prop up a minority government as in 1997. Like the smaller parties, Labour, the Greens and Sinn Féin, they were squeezed during the campaign by the strength of the big two, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

The fact that the Independent "Fianna Fáil gene pool" has been dramatically depleted will be a big factor as Bertie Ahern courts them in his attempts to get the magic 83 votes he needs to be returned as Taoiseach.

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There are no newcomers among the five Independent deputies and only two - Mayo's Beverley Flynn and Kerry South's Jackie Healy-Rae - have a Fianna Fáil background. Flynn is a former Fianna Fáil TD but has had a bankruptcy application against her lodged in the High Court by RTÉ in relation to the costs of her unsuccessful libel action. Under the Electoral Act 1992 an undischarged bankrupt is disqualified from membership of the Dáil so there is a chance she will be out of the equation.

Healy-Rae did a deal to back the minority Fianna Fáil/PD government coalition from 1997 to 2002 and will be drawing up a shopping list to have ready when the Taoiseach comes knocking.

Bertie Ahern will also be seeking the support of his constituency colleague, Tony Gregory of Dublin Central, who was also returned to the Dáil. Like Healy-Rae, Gregory is no stranger to striking deals and he famously negotiated with Charlie Haughey to enable him to form a government in 1982.

The other two Independents who regained their seats are Finian McGrath, of Dublin North Central, and former Fine Gael minister Michael Lowry, who bucked the trend by topping the poll in Tipperary North.

Lowry got out of his sick bed on Friday to say he was "available" to have discussions with Mr Ahern in "the interests of the people that I serve here in Tipperary in relation to the formation of the next government". McGrath has also said he would be open to talking to Ahern and to a deal. He will not turn down the chance of having some influence in the next Dáil.

The nine Independents who failed to get elected will now embark on life outside national politics. Though technically not an Independent, Socialist Party leader Joe Higgins of Dublin West was one of the most high-profile Independent voices to lose his seat. His loss means the Dáil will be without one of its most colourful deputies and a thorn in the side of Bertie Ahern.

Another high-profile casualty was the Mayo Independent TD who was very closely associated with the Shell to Sea Campaign, Jerry Cowley, who lost out to an outstanding performance by Fine Gael in the home constituency of party leader Enda Kenny.

Two Independents who were elected in 2002 on health platforms, Paudge Connolly in Cavan-Monaghan and James Breen in Clare, lost their seats. Catherine Murphy, who was only elected to the Dáil in the 2005 Kildare North byelection after Charlie McCreevy left for Brussels, lost out on the last count to Fine Gael's Bernard Durkan. Paddy McHugh in Galway East also lost and Seamus Healy was defeated in Tipperary South by Fianna Fáil's Martin Mansergh.

While the 14 Independents had no real influence in the last Dáil, they worked reasonably well together on policy issues.

The Government did not have to pay too much heed to them as it did not need their votes. This led some Independents to join political parties. Donegal North East's Niall Blaney joined Fianna Fáil late last year, and was re-elected as a Fianna Fáil TD. Wexford's Dr Liam Twomey, elected on a local hospital platform in 2002, joined Fine Gael but failed to get re-elected.