INDIA:INDIA, WRACKED by political turbulence, is faced with the real possibility of snap general elections ahead of the May 2009 deadline.
The political crisis has been generated by Communist MPs who sustain prime minister Manmohan Singh's government in office and are threatening to withdraw support over his determination to finalise the controversial civilian nuclear co-operation agreement with the US.
The Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPM yesterday reiterated that it could pull back support for the government if Dr Singh goes to next week's G8 summit in Japan, where he is expected to meet President George Bush and confirm the nuclear pact both agreed in Washington in 2005.
Ever since, the four left-wing parties with 59 MPs whose support is crucial for Dr Singh's Congress Party-led coalition, has steadfastly opposed it "operationalising" this agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on strategic and nationalistic grounds.
The deal promises to provide India with access to global nuclear commerce including atomic fuel and equipment while allowing it to retain its strategic weapons programme and stay out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
But fearful of Washington's "hegemonistic designs" on India, of which the nuclear deal was a key part, the left-wing parties had continually warned Dr Singh against clinching the "123 Agreement", named after a section of the US Energy Act.
"His [Dr Singh's] going to Japan is an indication that they [the government] are going ahead with the deal. We are therefore discussing the timing of the withdrawal [of support to the government]", CPM general secretary Prakash Karat said yesterday.
Analysts, however, warn that early polls would almost certainly plunge the country into political uncertainty and financial unrest, particularly as inflation is soaring at a 13-year high of more than 11 per cent.
Indian stocks dropped 2.5 per cent yesterday to post their biggest monthly loss in 16 years as political uncertainty and soaring oil prices took their toll on investor sentiment, rendering many of Dr Singh's coalition allies hesitant about facing elections ahead of time.
Many said that even after clearances from the IAEA and the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the pact would have to go before the US Congress for final approval before the end of Mr Bush's term for it to become operational. With Washington in election mode, many were sceptical that Congress would be up to confronting such complex legislation.
Dr Singh, however, had staked his reputation, along with those of the Congress Party and the country, on confirming the nuclear agreement, in order to meet India's galloping energy needs and to fuel its high and steady economic growth rate, second only to China's.
A flurry of meetings had been scheduled this week by the government, its non-communist allies and left-wing parties, to try and break the logjam, but insiders indicated unrest, irrespective of the outcome.