INDIA/ PAKISTAN: India's recent acquisition of a sophisticated anti-missile radar system poses a new challenge for the West, writes Tom Clonan.
Recent talks between Pakistan and India over the disputed territories of Jammu and Kashmir have resulted in an easing of tensions between the two countries. There are even renewed plans - after a gap of 15 years - for of a tour of Pakistan by India's national cricket team.
This is good news for the West, as the antagonists in this undeclared war are nuclear powers with the ability to escalate a local dispute in the Himalayas into a wider regional conflict - with global consequences. The fragile peace that exists between India, Pakistan and China resembles an Asian "Cold War" characterised by an arms race that has escalated in recent years. Despite the current rapprochement between New Delhi and Islamabad, a deal secured by India for the supply of an Israeli state of the art anti-missile radar system in recent days threatens to upset the delicate tactical and strategic balance in the region.
The Israeli government is to supply to India its Phalcon Aerial Early Warning (AEW) radar system. Mounted on six Russian-built Ilyushin-76 cargo aircraft and accompanied by Israeli Python-4 air to air missiles (AAMs), this system will give the Indian Air Force unprecedented air superiority throughout Asia. Unlike the US military's Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS), Phalcon does not rely on a cumbersome rotating radar dome mounted on an aircraft fuselage. Consequently, Phalcon will allow the Indian Air Force to track targets such as missiles and aircraft up to 20 times faster than current US military technology. The system transcends any missile threat posed by Pakistan and effectively neutralises China's air and missile threat to India. The acquisition of this weapon system may well generate unease amongst India's closest neighbours and nuclear rivals.
India's Prithvi missile delivery system places many of Pakistan's major population centres, including Islamabad, within range of nuclear warheads. The Indian authorities have also been developing an intermediate range missile designated Agni, with a range of 2,500 kilometres. Test-fired in 1989, this solid fuel missile could deliver nuclear warheads as far afield as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, China and Japan.
Anxious to match the threat posed by India's nuclear weapons arsenal, Pakistan developed its own nuclear arms programme, under Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan, in the 1970s. By 1987, Pakistan had acquired the technical means and the fissile materials necessary to indigenously produce a nuclear warhead. They did not, however, have the delivery system or missile necessary to carry such a warhead to "enemy" territory.
Pakistan's missile development was mysteriously rapid. In 1998, in direct response to India's nuclear weapons tests, Pakistan unveiled and successfully test-fired the Ghauri, or Hatf ("Deadly Revenge") missile. With a range of 1,500 kilometres, the Ghauri missile suddenly provided the Pakistanis with the ability to deliver Dr Khan's nuclear warheads to territories as disparate as India, Oman, Iran, China and Bangladesh.
Whilst it is not clear exactly how Pakistan made such a quantum leap in missile technology, it is interesting to note the similarities between the Ghauri missile and the North Korean No-Dong 1 missile. With a range of 1,500 kilometres, the No-Dong 1 missile appears to provide the blueprint for Pakistan's Deadly Revenge missile. In light of Dr Khan's recent admission that he "sold" Pakistani nuclear secrets to North Korea, cynical observers might conclude that a more orchestrated information exchange took place that endowed both states with the capability to develop, produce and deliver weapons of mass destruction.
It is now believed that North Korea, with the benefit of information such as Dr Khan's, has developed and manufactured its own nuclear warheads. These warheads, when mounted on missiles currently being developed by the North Koreans - based on Soviet SS-4 variants - would in theory place US targets within range of Pyongyang.
The acquisition by India of the Phalcon system dramatically negates Pakistan's efforts to counterbalance the nuclear threat posed by its neighbour. The challenge for the West is to ensure that China, Pakistan and North Korea be dissuaded from resorting to a frantic arms race and nuclear war to resolve territorial or ideological differences with real or perceived enemies.
Dr Tom Clonan is a retired Army officer. He currently lectures in the School of Media DIT