A clash of two DPJ titans may be fuelled by old-fashioned ambition and clashing egos, writes David McNeillin Tokyo
ON THE page it looks like one of Japan’s more colourful political bouts: a former environmental activist who rose from humble origins to run the country, and a backroom kingpin who recently made headlines when he called Americans “simple-minded”. But to many Japanese, the looming leadership duel between Prime Minister Naoto Kan (64) and Ichiro Ozawa (68) seems a bit like two bald men fighting over a comb.
Few understand the differences that motivate the contest, which appears to be more about clashing egos than policy.
The mass circulation Asahinewspaper summed up the feelings of many last week when it rhetorically asked: "What on earth are these people doing?" Two weeks before the September 14th election, which will decide who runs the ruling Democratic Party (DPJ) and the country, voters are "disgusted" with their leaders, thundered the paper.
Japan has had seven prime ministers in the last decade, during which it has languished near the bottom of the developed world’s performance league tables. Mr Kan has been in office just three months, and four of his predecessors have resigned in a year or less.
If Mr Ozawa improbably wins, he will be the country’s sixth leader since Junichiro Koizumi quit in September 2006.
Analysts say an Ozawa victory is unlikely. A Kyodo News poll last weekend put his public support at just 15.6 per cent. Almost 70 per cent of the electorate wants Mr Kan to stay in power.
But Mr Ozawa leads a political faction of 170 politicians – the party’s largest. DPJ bigwigs fear the contest could pull the party asunder – former prime minister Yukio Hatoyama tried and failed this week to broker a deal that would have called off the showdown. Many outside the DPJ are therefore struggling to understand why Mr Ozawa launched the leadership challenge.
One reason is surprisingly sharp differences over the government’s direction since it ended half a century of conservative rule by the Liberal Democrats last year.
Mr Ozawa is known to disagree on what he sees as backtracking on the party’s promises, including a large expansion of welfare spending. He blames Mr Kan’s enthusiasm for fiscal austerity and a consumption tax hike on the government’s drubbing in July elections.
There remains the suspicion in many minds, however, that old-fashioned ambition, tinged with sour grapes is the real fuel in the contest – hints of the bitter rivalry between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown that almost split the UK Labour Party.
Mr Ozawa has long been considered a leader in waiting, though opponents say his backroom style and hint of money politics hold little appeal to voters.
Most agree that the government needs all political hands on deck after squandering much of the good will that propelled it into office last year.
Public debt topped 900 trillion yen (€8.3 trillion) for the first time last month – roughly the UK’s entire net worth. Economists have worked out that staggering burden at 7.1 million yen (€66,260) per man, woman and child.
That grim milestone coincided with another: China recently overtook Japan as the world’s second largest economy. Economic growth slowed to 0.4 per cent in the second quarter and the soaring yen, which is at a 15-year highs, is hurting the country’s exporters.
In the background loom Japan’s unsolved structural problems: a falling population, weak domestic consumption and an elite bureaucracy that still dominates policy.
Both contestants seem to agree that those issues are bigger than either of them. “We agreed that once the election is over, we will work together regardless of our positions,” Mr Ozawa said on Monday.
But few feel safe predicting what this government will look like after the blood is cleared from the canvas on September 14th.