The dissident IRA group behind the attempted car bomb attack foiled by gardai on Saturday has linked up with at least one other rejectionist republican element in what may be a last-ditch effect to destabilise the Northern settlement.
The IRA group, which supports the political line of the group known as the 32-County Sovereignty Committee, and which has styled itself the "real" IRA, has aligned itself with those calling themselves the Continuity IRA (CIRA). The CIRA is the military wing of the small political party, Republican Sinn Fein (RSF).
A senior CIRA figure attended the funeral in Dublin two weeks ago of Ronan Mac Lochlainn, a "real" IRA member shot dead by gardai who confronted a gang of heavily-armed men in the process of robbing a security van at Ashford, in Wicklow.
According to security sources the two dissident groups, which were previously wary of each other, have come together to share information and materials for launching attacks in the North.
The "real" IRA group is headed by an ex-IRA man who was responsible for shipping arms into Northern Ireland. His group has access to quantities of Semtex explosive, detonators and other bomb-making components.
The bomb intercepted by the Garda's Emergency Response Unit (ERU) at the Border on Saturday was a professionally made device and would have caused massive damage if it had been detonated. Similar devices were also intercepted by the ERU at Dun Laoghaire ferry terminal the day before the Belfast Agreement was signed and in Dundalk just after St Patrick's Day.
The "real" IRA's intentions are to both damage the peace in the North and to undermine the IRA and Sinn Fein leadership.
Gardai understand that one of the IRA's former top bomb-makers, a south Armagh man, has joined the "real" IRA group. He may now be making bombs for both his group and the CIRA, which had only limited bomb-making skills.
Another ex-IRA engineer, who was involved in making mortars, has also joined the "real" IRA group and is believed to have made the mortars which were used in the past two months to attack security bases in Armagh city, Forkhill, Co Armagh and in west Belfast.
The mortar used in west Belfast, according to local sources, was put in place near Grosvenor Road RUC station by the Continuity IRA, which now has a unit established in west Belfast, comprising mainly ex-IRA members.
It appears this CIRA unit is being supplied with weapons by the "real" IRA.
According to local sources the CIRA group in west Belfast is also closely linked to the third dissident republican group, the Irish National Liberation Army (INLA), which is supplying the CIRA group with tactical expertise.
The INLA is a small but volatile and dangerous group which has been responsible for four murders in the North since December 27th last when some of its members in the Maze Prison shot dead the loyalist, Billy Wright, precipitating a spate of retaliatory sectarian murders in which eight Catholics were killed.
The INLA seems determined to cause further tension in the North.
On April 17th last it shot dead Mr Trevor Deeny, a former leading Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) member in Derry. The UVF, which has claimed Mr Deeny as one of its members in death notices, did not retaliate.
According to security sources in Belfast, the INLA also attempted to kill another leading UVF figure in east Belfast two weeks ago.
In the past such INLA assassinations led to retaliatory attacks on Catholics.
It had been thought the INLA was about to embark on yet another of its internal blood feuds last month when it shot dead one of its members, Mr Mark McNeill, on April 17th. However, the differences arising from this killing do not yet appear to have developed into further blood-letting.
The CIRA also has a unit operating in Derry where the INLA, too, is again active.
Security sources see the linking of these three dissident republican groups as a potentially dangerous development.
The CIRA and "real" IRA are mainly based along the Border from Dundalk to south Donegal and had not, until recently, established any support base in the urban republican centres of west Belfast and Derry. The two groups, while responsible for several bombings, have also not yet killed anybody. It is feared that any alignment with the INLA could provide a murderous side to the dissidents' campaign. Sources in west Belfast recently expressed concern that the INLA had planted a land-mine in the Whiterock area with the intention of killing passing soldiers or policemen. The INLA has not used bombs for several years and there are suspicions that it, too, was supplied with the device by members of the other dissident groups.
Last week the Sinn Fein figure, Danny Morrison, appealed on radio and television in the North to young republicans not to get involved in the dissidents' campaign. It is believed his remarks were directed to the CIRA group operating in west Belfast.