IRAQ: Iraq's leaders conceded yesterday that they are unlikely to win Sunni Arab approval for a new constitution by tomorrow's deadline.
The ruling coalition of Shias and Kurds said the disputed text could be pushed through parliament despite warnings from Sunnis that it was a charter for civil war.
The government ruled out major changes to a draft presented to parliament on Monday and said the restive Sunni minority had to accept that Iraq would become a federal state.
"The draft that was submitted is approximately the draft that will be implemented," said a spokesman for the prime minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari.
Approval of the text was delayed until tomorrow to give negotiators a last chance to clinch the consensus widely deemed crucial to the constitution's success. "The only possible change now is that the Sunnis become convinced on federalism," said Jalal al-Din al-Sagheer, a Shia member of the drafting committee.
There was little evidence that the once-dominant minority was softening its hostility to autonomy for Kurds in the north and Shias in the south, a move it fears will starve Sunnis of oil wealth, cripple central government and break up the country.
It also opposed a provision about de-Baathification, which outlined punishments and restrictions for officials of the former regime.
Before talks resumed yesterday one Sunni negotiator, Salah al-Mutlik, predicted rioting if parliament approved the text.
A colleague, Soha Allawi, said the constitution contained the seeds of civil war.
A day after President George Bush put a brave face on fading prospects for an inclusive deal, the US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad pleaded for compromise. "This is not the time to achieve all that one can at the expense of others," he said. Saudi Arabia, a Sunni regime uneasy at the ascendance of Iraq's Shias, expressed concern at the prospect of its neighbour dividing along sectarian lines.
As hours passed without sign of a breakthrough yesterday, the constitutional committee chairman, Humam Hammoudi, said the only solution might be to push the draft through parliament and let it stand or fall in a referendum on October 15th.
Plans are under way for a government public relations blitz involving canvassers, posters and television adverts, including one where grimy children in a sweatshop become shiny school pupils with the slogan: "What protects us from the wasteland? Our constitution!"
A two-thirds majority voting no in three of Iraq's 18 provinces would be enough to kill the constitution. Sunnis, believed to be a majority in four, are mobilising to make their voices heard.
Dominant under successive regimes, Sunnis have been alienated since the US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003. They largely boycotted the election in January but now want to engage in the political process, potentially sapping support for the resistance. Sunnis could even form an alliance with those Shias who oppose federalism.
But unless a significant number of Sunnis back the constitution the referendum is likely to turn into a sectarian and ethnic showdown.
Meanwhile Mr Bush, speaking while on vacation in Idaho yesterday, said Iraq's Sunnis have to decide what kind of society they want to live in.
"This talk about Sunnis rising up - I mean the Sunnis have got to make a choice. Do they want to live in a society that's free, or do they want to live in violence?" he told reporters. - (Guardian Service; additional reporting: Reuters)