THE COALITION headed by Iraqi prime minister Nuri al-Maliki yesterday regained the lead over the bloc headed by his closest rival, Iyad Allawi, as the tabulation of votes cast in Iraq’s March 7th election continued. With 83 per cent of votes counted, Mr Maliki’s sectarian State of Law list led Mr Allawi’s secular Iraqiya slate by just 40,000 votes. On Tuesday Mr Allawi was ahead by 9,000 votes.
But projections gave Iraqiya 90 seats in the 325-member assembly, with 89 for State of Law. Seat allocation is significant as legislators are chosen on a provincial rather than a national basis.
The picture could change with the incorporation of votes cast by Iraqis living abroad and during early voting by security forces, prisoners and the sick. Mr Maliki, whose roots are in Shia fundamentalism, is likely to win votes from the largely Shia security forces, which he built up since he took office. Mr Allawi, who heads a multi-sect list, could win among exiles in the Arab world and the West.
On Wednesday, Ali al-Adib of the State of Law bloc charged members of the election commission with manipulation of the results. This was the first challenge issued by Mr Maliki’s faction. He had earlier praised the conduct of the election and the count.
Whatever the final result, the Iraqi political landscape has been changed dramatically by this election. The emergence of Mr Allawi as a front runner shows that secular Iraqis are determined to have a voice in government, although they have been largely sidelined since the US installed a sectarian regime in 2003. Secular groups held 36 seats in the outgoing assembly. The Shia fundamentalist front, which had 128 seats, has fractured into competing entities. Mr Maliki’s bloc has overtaken the coalition formed by his former allies, the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC) and the movement loyal to radical Shia cleric Muqtada al- Sadr. Projections show the Sadrists have secured more seats than the combined total won by the SIIC and other parties in this coalition, which has 67 seats.
The first task of the new assembly will be to elect a president, who will ask the leader of the bloc with most members to form a government, which could involve protracted wrangling until the premier-designate secures the 163 seats needed.
