IRELAND IS unlikely to meet its annual obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from 2017 onwards despite the fall-off in emissions associated with the economic downturn, according to the latest Environmental Protection Agency projections.
Under the EU’s climate targets, Ireland is legally bound to deliver a 20 per cent reduction in its carbon footprint by 2020. However, the EPA said yesterday Ireland was unlikely to meet its carbon reduction requirements from 2017 onwards, even in “the best-case scenario”, which takes account of existing and planned policy initiatives.
The agency’s projection suggested the State would breach its target by between 4.1 and 7.8 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2020. However, the upper end of the prediction for 2020 was less than the 8.8 million tonnes predicted by the EPA last year.
The EU targets oblige Ireland to make the cuts in non-Emissions Trading Scheme greenhouse gases, which relate to emissions from the agriculture, transport, residential and waste sectors.
The EPA said Ireland would comfortably comply with its Kyoto 2008-2012 obligations, which commit the State to limiting emissions at 13 per cent above 1990 levels by 2012. The State would achieve the targets “without any further purchase of credits” under the ETS.
It also predicted a total “distance to target” for the Kyoto Protocol period of 4.1-5.1 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide emissions, significantly less than the 6.3- 8.1 million tonnes it projected this time last year. The reduction was primarily attributable to a reduction in transport emissions over the 2008-2012 period.
Growth in transport emissions is projected to slow significantly in coming years due to the slowdown in economic growth, which impacts on freight transport, and lower levels of car ownership.
The EPA’s director general, Laura Burke, said: “The projections show a reduction in Ireland’s distance to target under the Kyoto Protocol and the EU 2020 targets. This reflects a combination of the effects of the economic recession as well as assumptions on the full implementation of relevant Government policies.”
She warned that “Ireland cannot rely on recession to meet our long-term carbon reduction requirements, and needs to develop as a low-carbon economy”.
