Ireland will achieve its Kyoto commitment on greenhouse gas emissions by 2010, largely by buying carbon credits, a European Commission report on climate change forecast today.
The report predicts Ireland's emissions will be 22.6 per cent above 1990 levels by 2010.
But with the purchase of Kyoto credits and the use of "carbon sinks" through forests that soak up carbon dioxide, this will drop to 12.7 per cent, just inside Ireland's committed target rate of 13 per cent.
The EC's projection was based on the best available data and the measures being undertaken by the Government to combat global warming.
The report predicted the 15 European Union countries would collectively reach an 11.4 per cent emissions reduction by 2010 - further than the Kyoto goal of 8 per cent.
This would also be achieved through the purchase of Kyoto credits and with the adoption of additional measures such as including aviation in the bloc's emissions trading scheme.
"The latest projections show that the Kyoto target will be reached once the member states have adopted and implemented the additional actions now under discussion," Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas said. "I therefore urge them to do this swiftly."
Most other members of the 27-nation bloc also have goals to reduce emissions by 6 or 8 per cent compared to selected base years. Only Malta and Cyprus have no target.
Countries that were not on track to meet their goals were identifying measures to do so, the commission said.
Planned investment in projects to reduce emissions in developing countries, which generates so-called Kyoto credits, along with forestry measures, would lead to the projected 7.4 per cent fall, it added.
The EU committed this year to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20 per cent in 2020 compared to 1990 levels. It will tout that goal, along with a pledge to increase it to a 30 per cent cut if other nations join in, at international talks on climate change in Indonesia next month.
The commission said based on current projections, EU states would have to "put emissions on a much steeper reduction path after 2012" to meet the 2020 target.
