The overriding issue is the North and insiders say Ireland must keep the US on side, writes Deaglán de Bréadún, Foreign Affairs Correspondent
Like the old television programme called Now Get Out of That! the Government is in a tight corner over Iraq. But Bertie Ahern's difficulties are small beer by comparison with Tony Blair's. Unlike Britain, the main governing party here is largely at one over the issue, despite some populist mutterings from backbenchers. The junior coalition partner is to the right of Fianna Fáil. No aspiring candidate for the Fianna Fáil leadership has sought to take advantage of the issue to undermine the Taoiseach and, although a Fianna Fáil politician attended the last big protest at Shannon Airport, Senator Timmy Dooley had not come along to show support for the demonstrating lefties but to declare his solidarity with the members of the Garda Síochána protecting the perimeter fence!
True, at least 100,000 people were on the streets of Dublin last February 15th to protest against the looming threat of war. But with the kind of chutzpah for which he has long been famous, Bertie Ahern said he was "genuinely delighted" because it showed that people really cared.
Therefore it would be naïve and foolish to expect the Taoiseach to give President George W. Bush a stern lecture on the evils of pre-emptive military action when they hold their half-hour meeting at the White House today. It is to be expected that he will go through the motions of outlining Ireland's support for the United Nations and its central role but there are no indications - quite the reverse - that the President will be put on notice that the facilities at Shannon Airport will be withdrawn in the event that the US Government goes it alone, although the official position is that the Government has not made any decision about such an eventuality.
The overriding issue is Northern Ireland and we need "absolutely" to keep the US on side, according to Fianna Fáil insiders. The great rule with Ahern always is, "Never rush to judgment, let the hare sit as long as possible, because usually these things sort themselves out." Meanwhile, politicians and policymakers in government are thanking their lucky stars that Ireland's two-year term as an elected member of the United Nations Security Council came to end in December. At the same time there is concern, even in the republican movement, that Tony Blair may be overthrown, to the detriment of the peace process in which he invested so much time, energy and emotion, such as to make even Gladstone look half-hearted. The expected departure of the US special envoy, Richard Haass, from the scene is a setback but the loss of Blair would be a major blow. For this reason, to say nothing of our economic ties with the US, calls to boycott today's meeting with the President are being dismissed as "childish and naïve".
The setting of March 17th as a deadline for Iraqi compliance is somewhat unfortunate and already the wags are referring to "Saint Pat-Iraq's Day". But that is a minor consideration. All this may change, of course, if there are heavy civilian casualties as a result of a US invasion of Iraq. The casualties would want to be high and the television footage dramatic to shake the conviction of the governing political establishment that Ireland's relationship with the US must not be sacrificed at any price. As they see it, there is no point in having good relations with the world's sole superpower in the good times and deserting the Americans in their hour of need.
This will make depressing but hardly surprising reading for the young and not-so-young idealists currently organising protests and demonstrations against the war. But it was much the same during the Vietnam War when the government of the day remained mute as the streets of the world were thronged with opponents of US napalm and B-52 attacks.
True, some unintended political solace was provided to the establishment by the attacks on planes and fences at Shannon in the name of peace. It is the kind of action that plays into the hands of the right wing.
On the other hand, Government insiders are disappointed by the prevalence of the notion that it is somehow illegitimate, supine, monstrous or criminal to take a variety of considerations into account in the making of policy and they cite the reported comment by Spain's Prime Minister, Jose Maria Aznar, that he was elected to lead a country, not a street demonstration.
John Bruton has argued eloquently that unilateral US action would be illegal, but his successor as Taoiseach is unlikely to be making similar points today. Most of the time, either he or Foreign Affairs Minister Brian Cowen highlight the importance of having a united Security Council. It is the mantra of Government policy in this area. The Taoiseach upped the ante when he said a second UN resolution was a "political imperative" but even this has been softened since by Cowen who said only that it was "politically important", which, despite his protestations, is not the same thing. But, as often happens with controversial issues in Ireland, a decision to permit the continued use of Shannon in the event of unilateral US action could well bring the Government before the Supreme Court. The motto of our rulers is that Ireland has no friends, only interests, or as one insider put it, "No government is the Church or Amnesty International."