The decision by members of the ASTI and TUI to reject the Lansdowne Road agreement will have little real effect on the accord itself.
However, it could have significant implications for teachers individually.
The deal, which was negotiated last May, was approved last month by the public service committee of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions using its own rules for making such decisions on the basis of aggregating voting. As the larger unions such as Siptu, Impact and the primary teachers' organisation INTO backed the deal, the accord was always going to the formally ratified irrespective of the ASTI and TUI ballot results.
In the wake of the decision by members of the ASTI and TUI, the question now is whether they will agree to be bound by the majority vote of the public service trade unions to accept the accord.
Either way, second level teachers will benefit from the provisions of the Lansdowne Road deal, which will see most public service staff receive €2,000 in increased earnings in three phases between January 2016 and September 2017.
As these pay restoration measures form part of a move towards rolling back financial emergency legislation (FEMPI), the Government is obliged to honour these commitments for all staff in the public service.
The same may not be the case in relation to separate plans to restore payments to teachers for carrying out supervision and substitution duties and with regard to future incremental pay rises.
Under a commitment in the previous Haddington Road agreement, teachers were to see their pay boosted by a total of €1,790 in two tranches starting in September 2016 as part of a restoration of supervision and substitution payments.
Because this is an industrial relations agreement, and not part of FEMPI, the Government could decide to delay making the first phase payment of close to €800 due next year in the light of the vote to reject Lansdowne Road.
New legislation published by the Government last Friday would appear to be aimed at giving it such powers.
The updated financial emergency Bill in essence enables the Government to makethese supervision and substitution payments. By extension it could also permit the Government to withhold such money.
The new Bill would also provide for members of unions that repudiated collective agreements such as Lansdowne Road to lose out on incremental rises as they move up the pay scale until July 2018. These can range from several hundred euro to more than €2,000 in some cases, depending on where an employee is on the scale.
The TUI has already said it would not be bound by the majority decision of public service unions if its own members voted against the Lansdowne Road deal.
The ASTI has made no decision yet on this issue.
A key question is likely to centre on what exactly does it mean to be bound or not bound by the overall union decision to back the accord.
If , for example, unions decide to cease co-operation with work practice changes such as the 33 additional hours annually they had to work under the previous Croke Park agreement, then they could be on a collision course with the Government next year.
Any decision not to make the planned supervision or substitution payments would be a matter for the next Government.
A move not to pay the supervision and substitution payments to second level teachers in September would also in effect mean the breaking of the common pay scales for teachers as the money would be paid to those in primary schools.
It would also undoubtedly heighten the prospect of further industrial relations unrest in schools next autumn.
