CARBON EMISSIONS increased by almost 5 per cent in 2007, according to projections by a leading authority on the economics of climate change.
While official figures for 2007 will not become available until the end of the year, analysis by Prof Richard Tol of the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) estimates that emissions will increase by 4.6 per cent in 2007 compared to 2006.
Dr Tol's projections are based on mathematical modelling he has developed.
If this turns out to be the case, it will have implications for the commitment in the Programme for Government to reduce greenhouse emissions by 3 per cent each year during the lifetime of the coalition - a key concession won by the Greens during the Government negotiations.
Yesterday, the Green Party pointed out that it was always aware of the scale of the challenge in achieving the targets and the complexities involved.
"The Minister will not be receiving information in relation to the 2007 figures until much later this year," said the spokesman for Green Party leader John Gormley. "Undoubtedly, Mr Gormley has always maintained that achieving reductions would always be very challenging and will need a range of measures."
Prof Tol's estimates would mean that emissions will have risen from just below 70 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent at the end of 2006 to just below 73 million tonnes. That is nine million tonnes over the target of 64 million tonnes to which the Government has committed for 2012.
"There is no reason to believe that the emissions have gone down and every reason to believe they have gone up. 2007 was a year with reasonable economic growth and there was no direct policy in place," said Prof Tol.
Prof Tol added that he expects a reduction in emissions for 2008 of 2.2 per cent compared to 2007. However, he attributed this solely to the economic downturn.
That view was supported by Donal Buckley, head of business infrastructure at Ibec, who said it was difficult to see how annual linear reductions of 3 per cent will happen in the early years of this Government.
Mr Buckley pointed to the factors that will make it more difficult to achieve the targets: a larger agricultural sector than many other EU states; a rapidly growing transport sector; and a strong projected economic and population growth in the mid- to long-term.
There is a commitment in the Programme for Government for a carbon levy. However, as yet it is not clear if it will form part of Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan's first budget in December.
"The carbon levy continues to be a priority for the Minister," said his spokesman.
