Ireland's emissions of greenhouse gases fell marginally in 2006, according to provisional figures released today by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
The 0.8 per cent drop means Ireland is 8.5 per cent off its target for 2012 under the Kyoto Protocol. Under the Government's climate change strategy carbon credits will be bought to make up any deficit.
Ireland's annual allowance under Kyoto is a 25.5 per cent increase on 1990 levels to 62.84 million tonnes. The EPA figures today show a 2006 figure of 69.77 million tonnes, almost seven million tonnes above the target.
EPA director general Dr Mary Kelly said the Government's aim to reduce emissions by 3 per cent annually for the next five years was "extremely challenging".
She expressed particular concern about the rise in transport emissions - up 5.2 per cent on 2005 and 165 per cent up on 1990. Road transport accounted for 97 per cent of the 2006 increase. The EPA blamed more and larger vehicles and increasing road freight transport.
At around 20 per cent, transport accounts for Ireland's second-highest emission level, while agriculture remains the largest contributor at 28 per cent.
Reduced fertiliser use and a cut in the size of the national herd led to a fall in methane emissions and a general reduction of 1.4 per cent on 2005 levels. Methane is Ireland's second highest greenhouse gas emission after carbon dioxide.
Emissions from energy generation were down 4.6 per cent - largely attributable to the closure of the ESB's Moneypoint plant in Co Clare for maintenance.
"As the Government target for increased use of renewables begins to be delivered, we would hope for further reductions in the period to 2020," Dr Kelly said.
She also warned that when a successor to Kyoto is agreed it will require Ireland to further reduce emissions which would be difficult in an expanding economy.
A number of Government initiatives to reduce emissions have been implemented since 2006 including greater use of biofuels in public transport; higher insulation standards in buildings and grants for renewable energy sources such as solar, hydro and wind power.
Minister for the Environment and Green Party leader John Gormley said tax incentives for the purchase of lower-emission vehicles, charging motor tax and Vehicle Registration Tax on the basis of emissions and the proposed ban on incandescent light bulbs would also help reduce emissions.
But he warned: "We cannot afford to become complacent - we have a long way to go in terms of transition to a low-carbon, energy-efficient economy."
Labour Party spokeswoman on the environment Joanna Tuffy said the Moneypoint closure was the main contributor to the reduction and that the Government had failed to implement policies to "genuinely reduce" emissions.
"This means that the Government will have to rely almost totally on purchasing carbon credits out of taxpayers' money to meet its Kyoto Targets," she said.
It has been estimated that the cost of purchasing carbon credits, which will be calculated from this year on, could be €100 million annually when the total is calculated some time around 2012.