Lebanese, Syrian and Iraqi airspace is lying virtually defenceless, which could prove decisive to Middle Eastern stability in 2012
WHILE 2011 saw the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, tensions in the region continue to gather pace. Critically, pressure is mounting on Iran to suspend or abandon its programme of uranium enrichment. As we enter 2012, the head of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Force, (IRGC), Brig Gen Reza Jalali, has announced that Iran’s nuclear facilities have been made “invulnerable” to hostile air attack.
This announcement comes hand in hand with the disclosure of a previously clandestine underground enriched uranium refinement plant at Fordow, near the city of Qom. This underground site is in addition to other “hardened” sites at Isfahan and Natanz. The IRGC claims that in addition to deploying its nuclear programme to a series of deep underground bunkers, Iranian air defences have been strengthened to deal with any hostile air assault or pre-emptive missile strike.
In the meantime, Israel continues to reiterate that the prospect of a nuclear powered Iran would be “intolerable”. President Barack Obama has also stated formally that such an eventuality would be “unacceptable” to the United States. The fear in defence and intelligence circles is that Israel is preparing to launch air strikes on Iran’s heavy water reactor plant at Arak – due to become operational in 2012 – where weapons grade plutonium could, in theory, be produced.
Israel has acquired the necessary missiles and in-flight refuelling technology to unilaterally launch such attacks. Specifically, the Israeli Air Force has been conducting long range live exercises involving F-15 and F-16 jets, refuelled by Boeing 707 and KC 130 aerial fuel tankers over distances of up to 2,000km – similar in length to the round trip flight to Iran’s nuclear sites. The Israelis have also acquired BLU-109 and BLU-113 “Bunker Buster” munitions – massive guided bomb units capable of penetrating up to 23 metres of soil to breach reinforced steel and concrete subterranean structures.
Such an attack would be sufficient to disrupt Iran’s nuclear programme but would have devastating repercussions throughout the region. Such an act would likely provoke all-out war between Iran and Israel – a war that would inevitably involve the US as one of Tel Aviv’s key allies. However, current diplomatic measures aimed at curbing Iran’s accelerated nuclear programme appear ineffective. Nor does there appear to be the prospect of internal regime change within Iran, despite the much- vaunted Arab Spring throughout the region.
In the meantime, the security situation in Syria continues to worsen, gravitating towards civil war. This will have a knock-on destabilising effect in neighbouring Iraq, where the US no longer maintains a military presence. In this deteriorating scenario, by way of unhappy coincidence and timing, Lebanese, Syrian and Iraqi airspace lie virtually defenceless as we enter 2012.
This newly emerging air corridor would provide Israel with an ideal avenue of approach for an air assault on Iran, as it would not involve the violation of Jordanian or Saudi airspace. With hawkish hardliners in power in both Israel and Iran, the stage seems set for some form of confrontation in 2012.
Dr Tom Clonan is the Irish Times security analyst. He lectures in the School of Media, DIT
