It was just another routinely violent day in the south Lebanon war zone yesterday. Gunmen from the Iranian-backed Hizbullah movement, fighting to force Israel to withdraw from its "security zone", attacked five Israeli outposts, hit a tank, and injured two soldiers. Israel and its allies from the South Lebanon Army (SLA) militia shelled Hizbullah positions. Later in the day, Israeli jets blew up a Hizbullah radio transmitter. But behind the apparently interminable military punching and counter-punching, a clear pattern is emerging: slowly but surely, Hizbullah is gaining the upper hand. Israel is being worn down by a guerrilla movement.
Leaving aside the 73 soldiers who died when their transport helicopters collided en route to Lebanon in February, Israel has lost more than three dozen soldiers on the ground there so far this year.
Hizbullah is hitting the Israelis in places they thought they were invincible - two soldiers died last week in an attack a mere 150 yards from the border. And Israeli offensives are going horribly wrong: 12 soldiers died on September 5th, ambushed during a raid against a Hizbullah commander; five men died in a brush fire just days before that.
The losses, inevitably, are raising Hizbullah morale while destroying the confidence of the Israelis and their Lebanese allies. Inside Israel, a mother's group is pressing for a unilateral withdrawal from the security zone.
Concerned that Israel might be contemplating a unilateral pullout, abandoning his fighters, the SLA's commander, Gen Antoine Lahad, this week warned Israel that the SLA would then join up with the Hizbullah or form a new anti-Israel militia.