JAPAN: Conservatives keen to keep women from ascending the Chrysanthemum Throne are hoping this week will bring the answer to their prayers: the birth of Japan's first imperial male heir in more than four decades.
Princess Kiko, the 39-year-old wife of Emperor Akihito's second son, is scheduled to give birth by Caesarean section on Wednesday following pregnancy complications. The birth of a boy would almost certainly derail debate on revising Japan's males-only imperial succession law to let women take the throne. "Before Kiko's pregnancy there was momentum towards change, but if a boy is born, enthusiasm will diminish," said Miiko Kodama, a professor at Musashi University in Tokyo.
Japan's tabloid media, never reluctant to probe celebrity secrets, have already decided that the royal baby is a boy. In an article headed "Countdown to Princess Kiko's Childbirth", the weekly Shukan Bunshun wrote last week that Kiko's husband, Prince Akishino, had told a friend that their third child would be a boy. But the magazine added that nothing was certain.
The imperial household agency has declined to comment on the baby's gender, saying that Kiko and Akishino, who have two daughters, aged 14 and 11, did not want to be told ahead of time.
No boys have been born into Japan's imperial family since Akishino in 1965, and prime minister Junichiro Koizumi had planned to enact legislation to give women equal rights to inherit the throne to avert a succession crisis. The change would have put four-year-old Princess Aiko, the only child of Crown Prince Naruhito and Crown Princess Masako, next in line to the throne after Naruhito.
Kiko's pregnancy prompted the government to shelve the plan, which was opposed by conservatives eager to maintain a males-only tradition they say stretches back more than 2,000 years. Among those is chief cabinet secretary Shinzo Abe, widely tipped to succeed Mr Koizumi later this month.
Some say they hope the royal baby will be a girl to give fresh momentum to reform. "I want a woman to take the throne, so it would be nice if it's a girl," said Shimpei Kodama, a young male employee at an insurance company. Others like Tamio Honda, a 44-year-old IT company executive, prefer a boy. "I think it would make the Japanese people happy."
Under existing law, a son born to Kiko would be third in line to the throne after Naruhito and Akishino.
Some sympathisers of Masako, a Harvard-educated former diplomat who has been suffering from a mental illness caused by the stress of adapting to rigid royal life - including pressure to bear a male heir - think she would be happier if a boy was born.
"I think a boy would be better," said Machiko Kodaira, who was babysitting two children at a Tokyo playground. "I think that would take the burden off Masako." She added that she nonetheless favoured changing the law to let women reign.
Experts on the monarchy agree reform would still be needed eventually even if a boy is born, since ensuring future male heirs is difficult without a royal concubine system.
The practice of royal concubines was ended by Emperor Akihito's father, Hirohito.
Traditionalists hope Mr Abe's election as prime minister will open the way for the sort of revisions they favour, such as reviving princely houses abolished after the second World War to expand the pool of possible male heirs.