The reformist Japanese politician, Mr Junichiro Koizumi, had a landslide victory in local primary elections in the contest for the leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) yesterday. His victory was confirmed in the Diet yesterday afternoon after securing a total of 298 out of 484 votes cast by local party delegates and LDP Diet members. His nearest rival, the former prime minister, Mr Ryutaro Hashimoto, polled 155 votes, and the Economics Minister, Mr Taro Aso, just 31.
The fourth candidate in the race, the cabinet policy chief, Mr Shizuka Kamei, helped secure Mr Koizumi's win by pulling out of the race just hours before the Diet vote.
With the deeply unpopular Mr Yoshio Mori now finally ousted as LDP leader, legislators will vote to nominate the next prime minister tomorrow. Because of its numerical strength and dominant role in the three-way coalition that rules Japan, the LDP is expected to win. Mr Koizumi has already set about forming a new cabinet which he hopes to inaugurate by Friday.
Much is expected of the former health and welfare minister. Many observers believe that Mr Koizumi is the lightning-rod for widespread unhappiness about the state of Japan's stagnant economy and corrupt politics. He has staked his claim for leadership on his ability to deal quickly with the country's battered finances and end a decade of economic drift which has left Japan with the worst public debt in the industrial world.
Mr Koizumi's prescriptions for the country's ills, which include Thatcherite-style privatisations and economic shock therapy to deal with the banks' estimated $178 billion of bad loans, will cheer up the economic markets but almost certainly lead to a short recession and more unemployment.
In contrast, many LDP legislators, including Mr Kamei, argue that the economic medicine should be doled out in small doses to avoid disrupting Japan's famed social peace. Mr Kamei strongly supports the kind of social spending on public works which has helped keep the economy afloat, and maintain the ruling party's solid base in the countryside and among small businesses, farmers and banks.
Mr Koizumi opposes this approach which he says has helped cripple the country's finances. His flagship plan, to privatise the $2 trillion low-interest postal savings system, which has been raided for years to pay for public works projects, remains deeply unpopular within sections of the LDP.
There is much doubt about whether Mr Koizumi can face down the conservative forces within his own party and bring the radical reform he has promised. Indeed, some suspect he may have already compromised to win the leadership.
Mr Kamei and several members of his faction confirmed to reporters yesterday that they had met a delegation led by Mr Koizumi on Monday night, before the decision to withdraw, and there was some suspicion in political circles that a deal had been made between the two sides to ease Mr Koizumi's passage to victory.
The new leader will have a very short honeymoon. With Upper House elections in July and the possibility of a general election to follow, most observers feel Japan is in for a rough political ride in the next couple of months.
