Hopes of resolving the nurses' dispute rose yesterday afternoon, but fell again last night. Nobody can say what will happen today.
The most positive signs yesterday came after a meeting between leaders of the Nursing Alliance and the ICTU's general purposes committee.
It was part of a process begun on Sunday when the Minister for Health and Children, Mr Cowen, indicated on RTE that he would meet the nurses, "if the Nursing Alliance recommit themselves to social partnership".
Later that evening the chairman of the alliance, Mr Liam Doran, opened the way by acknowledging that the unions were "cognisant" of the Government's difficulties in dealing with "outstanding pay issues of nursing grades against the backdrop of existing social agreements".
As a result, the Minister met the alliance on Monday afternoon. But no progress was made in agreeing a framework for talks. Instead, both sides went off to their respective "social partners" - the Minister to the Government and the alliance to the ICTU - to ask them how a negotiating process could be put in place.
By lunchtime yesterday the Government had endorsed Mr Cowen's approach, saying it was "anxious that a process be found as speedily as possible". It warned that the negotiations had to "facilitate the maintenance of social partnership".
The Government added that it had "asked the relevant Departments and the health service employers' representatives to explore the possibilities in this regard so that an early resolution can be found to this dispute".
The reference to "relevant Departments" meant the Department of Finance and the Minister, Mr McCreevy, had been brought on board.
That was the easy part. More critical was the meeting yesterday afternoon between the Nursing Alliance and its social partner, the ICTU. It was vital that the nursing union leaders be persuaded to re-enter negotiations on a basis with which other public service unions, as well as the Government, could live.
The meeting was not as acrimonious as had been feared, although one informed source said it was made clear to the nurses there could be no more "solo runs" if they expected support from other unions.
Afterwards, the ICTU general secretary, Mr Peter Cassells, was careful to link two aims: improving the position of nurses and delivering services to the public.
By linking the aim of extra resources for the health services with nurses' wider grievances, he clearly hoped to place the dispute more firmly within the parameters of Partnership 2000.
He made it clear, however, that congress supported the nurses in their campaign "to improve the status of the profession", and he added: "Nurses are co-operating with major changes in their profession and must be rewarded."
Congress would facilitate direct negotiations, but Mr Cassells made it clear that the Nursing Alliance would have to address the substantive issues in direct talks.
"It is important that they retain ownership of the issues," he concluded.
Mr Doran was careful to play down past differences with other public service unions. He described the meeting as "very constructive and with a very focused agenda".
He said congress "has deepened its knowledge of the issues in dispute" and supported the nurses in bringing it to "a conclusion".
Mr Doran indicated three general areas where he felt progress could be made. One was further clarifications on the Labour Court recommendation, which could cover areas such as allowances and leave.
The second was the findings of the Commission on Nursing which outline new career structures and promotional outlets for staff nurses through new grades such as clinical nurse practitioners and clinical nurse specialists.
The third was the local bargaining clause of Partnership 2000. The aim would be to use it to optimum effect to improve pay scales.
Following the Nursing Alliance-ICTU meeting, ICTU leaders went to Government Buildings to meet senior Government officials. These talks are due to resume this afternoon. It remains to be seen whether they can succeed in putting a process in place.
The stakes are high. Not only must they try to resolve the nurses' strike; they must do so in a way that preserves Partnership 2000 and keeps the social partners' options open for a successor agreement.
pyeates@irish-times.ie