AN immediate and genuine IRA ceasefire would strengthen President Clinton's hand in putting pressure on the next British prime minister to allow Sinn Fein entry to all party talks in early June, according to Senator Edward Kennedy.
The Massachusetts senator strongly implies in an article in today's Irish Times that the IRA must deliver a ceasefire now in order to maintain President Clinton's interest in the peace process and to ensure that Irish America can remain an effective lobby group.
He says: "I urge the IRA to restore its ceasefire immediately so that all of us who support fair talks can credibly argue for Sinn Fein's admittance to the talks on June 3rd."
A new ceasefire would help to ensure that Northern Ireland was "very high" on the agenda for discussions between President Clinton and the next British prime minister, he emphasises.
While leading Sinn Fein politicians have dampened speculation about a pre election IRA cessation of violence, the senator points to the advantages such a ceasefire could have for the republican movement.
While a speedy ceasefire might give President Clinton extra leverage in persuading the next British government to allow Sinn Fein into all party talks, the absence of a cessation of violence could lead to President Clinton "losing interest".
"An immediate restoration of the ceasefire would no doubt give the next British government a feeling that progress can be achieved in Northern Ireland and, that Sinn Fein and the IRA are willing to do their part," he says.
"Also, the next prime minister certainly will be in immediate contact with President Clinton. If a ceasefire has been in place long enough, the opportunity for progress in Northern Ireland would likely be very high on their agenda, and I and many other Irish Americans would certainly encourage it.
"If there is no ceasefire by that time, or only a recent ceasefire, Northern Ireland will understandably be lower on that agenda," Senator Kennedy adds.
Referring to his call last month for the British to give a "reasonable commitment" that Sinn Fein would be able to enter talks following an IRA ceasefire, the senator says that Dr Mo Mowlam, the British Labour Party spokesperson on the North, now appears to have given such a commitment by suggesting that Sinn Fein could be in the talks on June 3rd if an immediate and lasting ceasefire was declared.
"Sinn Fein has often indicated that the key to restoring the ceasefire is the assurance of a date of entry into talks for Sinn Fein. Dr Mowlam's statement gives the assurance, which is rightly qualified, of course, on the basis of the ceasefire being genuine," he adds.
"By calling the ceasefire now, there is ample time - eight weeks - to establish the requisite confidence before the talks recommence in June." Calling a ceasefire after the election on May 1st would only leave half the time to build trust. "Why not act now?"
Senator Kennedy says that the vast majority of Irish Americans want the IRA to restore the ceasefire immediately. "The IRA will have no credibility if they simply turn ceasefires on and off."
The senator reiterated his view that the British government procrastinated for too long during the 17 months of the IRA ceasefire.
"Sinn Fein's scepticism about any new commitment is understandable," he says.
"On the other hand, unionists will have legitimate doubts about the sincerity of the next IRA ceasefire, since the first ceasefire was eventually broken. With that kind of thinking on both sides, there is little room for more than one more ceasefire, so all of us have to make it count. Now seems to be the time."
