TAOISEACH ENDA Kenny could find himself adjudicating as Fine Gael leader on candidate selection in his own constituency at the next general election.
Mayo has lost a seat, becoming a four-seater, and Fine Gael has four outgoing TDs. The fifth seat is held by Fianna Fáil’s Dara Calleary.
Fine Gael secured a remarkable 65 per cent of the vote in the last election, an increase of 11 points.
Kenny polled 17,472 first preferences, taking the first seat on the first count. Michael Ring, who is now Minister of State for Tourism, polled 13,180 first preferences and was also elected on the first count. Michelle Mulherin took the third seat, and John O’Mahony took the last seat for the party.
With Fianna Fáil on the ropes, Fine Gael was rampant in the constituency. It was an extraordinary performance, unlikely to be repeated.
Running four candidates from the same party in a four-seater would not make political sense at the next election. So who among the four Fine Gael TDs should stand aside?
Clearly, not Kenny nor Ring. The case for Mulherin would be that she has an all-important Ballina base and came in ahead of O’Mahony the last time.
But O’Mahony, who is from Ballaghaderreen, could argue that he did very well to take a seat against the odds in 2007 before Fine Gael’s fortunes took off.
Kenny will be leading the Fine Gael team in Mayo as outgoing Taoiseach, with, as of now, every prospect of returning to the job given the size of the Government majority. But even with that significant electoral advantage, securing the four seats would require a political miracle not to mention the kind of tight vote management rarely seen these days.
It would also mean dislodging Calleary, from Ballina, the party’s sole TD in the one-time Fianna Fáil stronghold. That would be an impossibility. In fact, a rejuvenated Fianna Fáil could put in a strong bid for a second seat if the party’s fortunes improve and Fine Gael suffers the downturn in popularity that being in government sometimes brings.
A possible way out for Fine Gael would be if the party’s North West MEP Jim Higgins (67) decided to retire at the next European elections in 2014. This could pave the way for O’Mahony, or even Ring, to seek a nomination.
O’Mahony’s credentials would be strong given his huge GAA involvement. He won two All-Ireland medals with Mayo, and he managed the Galway senior footballers to All-Ireland titles in 1998 and 2001. He managed two under-21 winning All-Ireland teams, Mayo in 1983 and Galway in 2002. He also holds the record of being the only manager to manage three counties to provincial titles, Mayo, Leitrim and Galway.
The hugely energetic Ring, who has privately expressed an interest in the European parliament in the past, would also be known throughout the Euro constituency because of his tourism portfolio. Whether he would be prepared to relinquish his junior ministry for Europe is another matter.
The European option for O’Mahony or Ring presupposes that Higgins would be ready to call it a day. There is no indication at all of that. An outstanding Dáil performer and possible future leader at one time, his career in national politics was cut short in 2002 when he lost his Dáil seat by 87 votes in the swing against Fine Gael. He then opted for Europe.
The party is tight-lipped about the future. But a controversial selection process in the Taoiseach’s constituency at the next election is a possibility.
Fianna Fáil will be keenly observing internal Fine Gael machinations as it attempts to reassert its electoral authority in Mayo. With Calleary, an impressive Dáil performer, having a secure base in Ballina, the party is likely to look to its old stronghold of Castlebar, where Pádraig and Beverley Flynn once reigned supreme, for a second candidate.
A strong bet would be a new broom, barrister Lisa Chambers, who was a last-minute addition to the ticket at the last general election while still a law student. Given the swing against Fianna Fáil she did well to poll 3,343 first preferences. Since then she has become a vice-president of Fianna Fáil and, being young and female, she is exactly the kind of candidate Micheál Martin has in mind in fashioning a new image for the party.
Independent councillor Michael Kilcoyne, who polled just under 4,000 votes the last time, may think of running again.
Sinn Féin ran two candidates, Therese Ruane and Rose Conway-Walsh, who between them won 6.5 per cent of the vote. The party is likely to be in the field again.
Labour found just how difficult Mayo is in terms of carving an electoral niche when former Independent TD Dr Jerry Cowley secured just 5 per cent of the vote. Cowley may be a candidate again.
SITTING TDs
Enda Kenny,
Michael Ring,
Michelle Mulherin,
John O’Mahony, FG;
Dara Calleary, FF.
