Saudi King Fahd's failure to attend last week's funeral of his eldest son has given rise to speculation that his presence in the Spanish resort of Marbella may be linked to a serious illness. Prince Faisal (54), known as the "prince of sport", died of a heart attack on his return to Riyadh from the Arab Games in Jordan.
King Fahd (78), came to the throne in 1982 at the age of 61. In 1995, he suffered a series of strokes and underwent major surgery. He is now confined to a wheelchair. The fact he has been shown on Saudi television in his wheelchair is seen by analysts as an indication that the normally secretive royal family wishes to signal that the king is gravely ill.
Under the system of fraternal succession adopted by the kingdom's founder, King Abdel Aziz al-Saud, King Fahd's half-brother, Prince Abdullah (75), became crown prince. He has been effective ruler since 1996 and recently assumed the second of the king's roles, "Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques [Mecca and Medina]".
Although King Fahd could, in theory, choose one of his sons to succeed, no one expects him to upset the sacrosanct practice of the father of the dynasty.
Any attempt to sideline Crown Prince Abdullah would also be met with popular disapproval.
In a country where the rulers dwell in marble palaces and have little contact with their subjects, Prince Abdullah has emerged as a man of the people, a prince with a common touch. To the dismay of his bodyguards, he recently went walk-about in a shopping mall, pausing to chat with shopkeepers and shoppers.
He has been honest with Saudis about the kingdom's economic problems, castigated corruption, called for women to have a greater role in society and criticised bureaucratic inefficiency.
In a country where corruption and princely nepotism is rife, Abdullah is "prince clean". While most of the princes spend freely, he closely scrutinises government expenditures to eliminate waste.
Last year, he warned Saudis that the "oil boom is over" and said they must expect major economic changes. He cut the subsidy on petrol, boosting its price by 50 per cent, and has drawn up plans to privatise the telecommunications and electricity sectors and impose value added tax.
Prince Abdullah plays the popular "Arab" card by involving himself in Arab affairs more than King Fahd did. And Prince Abdullah has shown himself cool to the close relationship with the US, which is deeply resented by ordinary Saudis.
Unlike the king, who is one of seven brothers, Prince Abdullah is a prince alone in the huge Saudi royal family. He is the sole son of a princess of a clan defeated by Abdel Aziz in the civil war which brought the Saud family to power in the 1920s. While Prince Abdullah can count on the military muscle of the National Guard, created and commanded by him, he clearly prefers to secure his position by relying on the people.
A confrontation with his successor, Prince Sultan (72), Prince Abdullah's half-brother and King Fahd's full-brother, is highly unlikely.
Since 1982, Prince Sultan, the Defence Minister, is second in the line of succession and is determined to be king. But no one knows who will succeed him. Saudis hope Prince Abdullah will come up with a formula for the transfer of power. Although 25 of Abdel Aziz's sons are still alive, many Saudi professionals and businessmen would like to see the next generation, the founder's grandsons, succeed after Prince Sultan. But they number in the hundreds. The stipulation that the successor should be the "most upright" could severely limit the number of candidates.
