SERBIA:The two men vying for Serbia's presidency started campaigning for the February 3rd run-off yesterday, with both seeking to secure the backing of the country's prime minister and woo about one million voters who supported other candidates in Sunday's first round, writes Daniel McLaughlin.
Officials said ultra-nationalist Radical Party leader Tomislav Nikolic won that ballot with 40 per cent of votes, ahead of current president Boris Tadic on 35 per cent. In the second round of the 2004 election, Tadic beat Nikolic after also losing the first round.
They will now re-launch their campaigns to convince Serbia that they have the superior vision for its future, with Nikolic offering closer ties with Russia and an uncompromising relationship with Washington and Brussels, and Tadic vowing to lead Serbia's 10 million people out of poverty and isolation and towards the European Union.
Both men refuse to accept Kosovo's independence, but while Nikolic says he would never join the EU while it backs sovereignty for the mostly Albanian region, Tadic urges pragmatism and continued engagement with the EU and the United States.
Nikolic's hard-line position will almost certainly attract the 6 per cent of voters who backed socialist Milutin Mrkonjic on Sunday, while Tadic can count on the support of the 5 per cent who voted for young liberal Cedomir Jovanovic.
The decisive votes in a fortnight's time could come from Serbs who gave Velimir Ilic third place, with 7 per cent of ballots.
Ilic represented the party of Vojislav Kostunica, the dour prime minister who has become the king-maker of Serb politics by positioning himself between the liberal Tadic and the far-right Nikolic.
Despite infuriating Tadic and the EU and US with his increasingly nationalist rhetoric and refusal to compromise over Kosovo, Kostunica is once more being courted by liberals and radicals who hope to win his endorsement for the February 3rd showdown.
"Kostunica will be choosing Serbia's next president," said Goran Svilanovic, a former Serb foreign minister. "Whomever he chooses will be the winner in the run-off." Kostunica has taken a tough stance in previous, similar situations, and has often held out in negotiations with Tadic to gain the highest political price for his support.
Ahead of the second round, he may demand that Tadic take a more strident line against EU plans to recognise Kosovo's independence in the coming months, and could seek significant concessions from Brussels, which deeply fears victory for Nikolic.
Like the Radical Party leader, who was an ally of Slobodan Milosevic, Kostunica has moved closer to Russia in appreciation of its refusal to accept a sovereign Kosovo, and he now plans to sell Serbia's state oil firm to Moscow for a knockdown price.
With Kostunica as premier, Nikolic as president and Russian energy firms holding sway over the economy, Serbia would be a pro-Moscow enclave deep in the Balkans, and a potentially serious obstacle to EU and US interests in the region.
Western powers have delayed a final decision on Kosovo to avoid boosting Nikolic, but have also refused to sign an EU pre-accession deal with Belgrade until war crimes suspects like Ratko Mladic are caught.
The EU now has few cards with which to strengthen the hand of Tadic before February 3rd, although officials plan to discuss lifting visa restrictions for Serbs this month. "One thing is certain," said analyst Marko Blagojevic. "This will be the tightest election ever in Serbia and the winner won't be known until the last second."
