IRAQ:The Kurdish regional assembly has capitulated to Baghdad by agreeing to a six-month postponement of a referendum on whether oil-rich Kirkuk should be annexed by the Kurds.
Under the 2005 constitution, the referendum should have been held by the end of this year. But the Iraqi national parliament has been unable to pass the appropriate legislation and the government has failed to conduct a pre-referendum census in the volatile Kirkuk area.
Without a census, the Kurds cannot be certain a majority would vote in favour of annexation. Arabs and Turkmen, two-thirds of the inhabitants of the area in 2003, may still be able to out-vote local Kurds in spite of the attempt by Kurdish authorities to boost the Kurdish presence by importing Kurds from elsewhere.
Turkey, which rejects annexation, has put pressure on the Iraqi Kurds by mobilising forces along the frontier of the Kurdish region and bombing locations Ankara claims are harbouring Turkish Kurdish rebels.
By delaying the referendum, Iraq's Kurdish leaders hope to have time to restore calm and engineer the result they want.
The decision of the Kurdish regional parliament coincided with the approval by the Iraqi national assembly of draft legislation demanded by Sunni legislators for the release of thousands of prisoners.
Iraqi forces currently hold 24,000 prisoners, while US forces hold 26,000, the majority Sunni.
Sunni ministers have resigned and Sunni deputies have boycotted parliament in protest against mass incarcerations and other policies considered to be anti-Sunni. Although the adoption of a general amnesty meets the Sunni requirement, the legislation is not expected to be passed when parliament meets in March.
The Shias oppose measures designed to bring marginalised Sunnis into the circle of power. Last week Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the Shia Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC), called for the government to exert control over Sunni tribesmen and neighbourhood watch groups that have taken over Sunni areas and ousted al-Qaeda fighters from Baghdad and al-Anbar province.
Mr al-Hakim also opposes the US demand for the recruitment of 65,000-80,000 Sunni volunteers into the police and security forces, which are dominated by SIIC militiamen and fighters from other Shia formations.
But unless adequate numbers of Sunnis are permitted to join these forces, members of their community will not feel secure and thousands of young Sunni men will remain unemployed.
