THE LABOUR Party has become the biggest political party in the State for the first time in its history, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.
Labour leader Eamon Gilmore gets a far higher satisfaction rating than any of his rivals, while the party is ahead of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in terms of its core vote as well as the adjusted vote.
The Labour surge has taken place all over the State, with the party increasing its lead over all other parties in Dublin, in joint first in the rest of Leinster and just one point off the lead in Munster.
Fianna Fáil has dropped back to the record low it reached last September, while the standing of the Government and Taoiseach has fallen sharply over the past six months.
There is also bad news for Fine Gael, with the party dropping to its lowest rating in two years and leader Enda Kenny falling back in terms of satisfaction rating.
When people were asked for whom they would vote if there was a general election tomorrow, the adjusted figures for party support, compared with the last Irish Times poll on January 20th last, were: Fianna Fáil, 17 per cent (down five points); Fine Gael, 28 per cent (down four points); Labour, 32 per cent (up eight points); Sinn Féin, 9 per cent (up one point); Green Party, 3 per cent (no change); and Independents/ Others, 11 per cent (no change).
The poll was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week among a representative sample of 1,000 voters aged 18 and over, in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 per cent.
Most of the research was conducted before the reports of the two banking inquiries were made public but after the controversy about the expenses claimed by Fianna Fáil Senator Ivor Callely.
The core vote for the parties (before undecided voters are excluded) compared with the last Irish Timespoll was: Fianna Fáil, 16 per cent (down one point); Fine Gael, 21 per cent (down three points); Labour, 22 per cent (up five points); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (up one point); Green Party, 3 per cent (up one point); Independents/Others, 7 per cent (down one point); and undecided voters, 23 per cent (up one point).
Just 12 per cent of voters are satisfied with the way the Government is doing its job (down seven points) while 83 per cent are dissatisfied (up seven points).
On the party leaders, Brian Cowen gets a satisfaction rating of 18 per cent (down eight points); Mr Kenny is on 24 per cent (down seven points); Mr Gilmore is on 46 per cent (no change); John Gormley, 21 per cent (down three points) and Gerry Adams, 31 per cent (no change).
The surge in Labour support over the past six months is the outstanding feature of the poll and it gives credence to Mr Gilmore’s claim to be regarded as a realistic candidate for the taoiseach’s office at the next election, which will take place on the 100th anniversary of the party’s foundation if the Dáil runs its full term to 2012.
The substantial increase in Labour support is evenly spread across the country, with the party coming in first place at 50 out of the 100 sampling used in the poll. The challenge now facing Labour is to translate this extra support into seats at the next election by running at least two candidates in most constituencies.
The significant drop in the Fianna Fáil vote will come as a deep disappointment to the party. It marks a reversal of the trend shown in the last poll which appeared to indicate a modest recovery in the party’s fortunes after it had taken a series of difficult decisions in the second half of last year.
The drop in the Government’s satisfaction rating to just 12 per cent and the reversal in Mr Cowen’s fortunes since the last poll are part of the same trend of public unhappiness with the way the country is being run.
Fine Gael will also be disappointed at the loss of support at this crucial stage in the lifetime of the Dáil. It has fallen under 30 per cent for the first time since June 2008.
Losing the status of being the most popular party in the country, which it has held over that period, is a setback for the party. The fall in the satisfaction rating of Mr Kenny to 24 per cent is another blow. This is the lowest rating he has achieved since becoming party leader in the summer of 2002.
The Green Party can take some consolation from the poll. Its core vote has improved a little, although it could still lose its Dáil seats on the 3 per cent share of the vote it achieved. There is also some reassurance for Sinn Féin, with the party vote moving up a little, while satisfaction with party president Gerry Adams has stabilised at 31 per cent.