THE LABOUR Party has consolidated its position as the most popular party in the State, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll, which also shows a drop in support for Fine Gael.
The poll shows a modest recovery in the Fianna Fáil vote since the last Irish Times poll in June. The party has now drawn level with Fine Gael for the first time in almost two years.
The poll was taken earlier this week, when the row over Dáil pairings was at its height and as the Fine Gael tactic of refusing pairs for Ministers appeared to have backfired.
Eamon Gilmore remains the most popular party leader, while there has been a slight recovery in the standing of Taoiseach Brian Cowen, despite the furore over his radio interview on Morning Ireland.
When people were asked who they would vote for if there was a general election tomorrow, the figures for party support when undecided voters are excluded, compared with the last Irish Times poll on June 11th last, were: Fianna Fáil, 24 per cent (up three points); Fine Gael, 24 per cent (down three points); Labour, 33 per cent (up four points); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (down two points); Green Party, 2 per cent (down two points); and Independents/others, 9 per cent (no change).
The poll was taken on Monday and Tuesday of this week among a representative sample of 1,000 voters aged 18 and over, in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 per cent.
The polling firm Ipsos MRBI has dropped the adjustment it had applied to figures for the past decade and reverted to a simple exclusion of undecided voters for the top-line figures, which are compared to the same figures in the last poll. The methodology is explained on page 10.
The core vote for the parties (before undecided voters are excluded) compared with the last Irish Times poll was: Fianna Fáil, 19 per cent (up three points); Fine Gael, 20 per cent (down one point); Labour, 27 per cent (up five points); Sinn Féin, 6 per cent (down two points); Green Party, 2 per cent (down one); Independents/Others, 8 per cent (up one point); and undecided voters, 18 per cent (down five points).
Despite the improvement in Fianna Fáil’s position, just 13 per cent of voters are satisfied with the way the Government is doing its job (a rise of one point), while 83 per cent are dissatisfied (no change).
On the party leaders, Brian Cowen got a satisfaction rating of 19 per cent (up one point); Enda Kenny was on 25 per cent (up one point); Eamon Gilmore was on 49 per cent (up three points); John Gormley, 18 per cent (down three points); and Gerry Adams, 29 per cent (down two points).
The number of people who would like to see a general election this year has dropped since June. A total of 54 per cent (down three points) said they would like an early election, while 35 per cent (an increase of four points) said they would not.
The continuing surge in Labour support is the outstanding feature of the poll and confirms the next election will be a three-way tussle to decide which party will be the biggest in the next Dáil.
Dublin is the strongest region for Labour and the party is now attracting more support in the capital than Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael combined. Munster is the next best region for Labour, where the party is also in the lead, as it is in the rest of Leinster.
Connacht-Ulster is the only region where Labour is in its traditional position of third place, but even there it is not far behind Fianna Fáil. It is the only region where Fine Gael remains in first place.
The poll represents a worrying setback for Fine Gael, which not only slipped further behind Labour since June but is now at level pegging with Fianna Fáil for the first time since November 2008.
The June poll findings helped to trigger a leadership heave against Enda Kenny. While he saw off a challenge from Richard Bruton, there is now likely to be further soul-searching in the party.
Worryingly for Mr Kenny, just 55 per cent of his own supporters are satisfied with his performance, while 36 per cent are dissatisfied.
The increase in the Fianna Fáil vote after the deluge of unfavourable publicity that followed its meeting in Galway, and the continuing controversy about Anglo Irish Bank, will come as a huge relief to the party and its leader. It indicates support for the party has bottomed out at about 24 per cent and it has a realistic prospect of pushing back towards 30 per cent in an election campaign.
There is little comfort for the Green Party in the poll as its support has declined since June and it could lose all of its six seats in an election.