TWO OF the poorest and most conservative states in the US could play a decisive role in the Republican presidential nomination today when Alabama and Mississippi hold their primaries, with 90 delegates at stake.
If former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich loses both states, it could spell the end of his campaign, despite his vow to “go all the way to Tampa”. And if Mr Gingrich drops out, the contest would become virtually a two-man race between front-runner Mitt Romney and his more conservative rival, Rick Santorum.
A two-man race is Mr Santorum’s only hope of defeating Mr Romney. In Michigan, Ohio and Alaska, the total votes of Gingrich and Santorum surpassed Mr Romney’s. But in 14 other states, Mr Romney beat the two men combined.
Opinion polls have been unhelpful in predicting the results of today’s primaries. Three different polls in Alabama late last week showed three different winners. Of two polls published in Mississippi on Friday, Mr Romney led one, Mr Gingrich the other. A new Mississippi poll yesterday gave Romney a slight lead, with Mr Gingrich within the margin of error. An Alabama poll showed the opposite result.
Mr Romney is deemed more likely to win Alabama than Mississippi, because it is more urban and less poor. An unlikely double win would increase pressure on the other Republicans to drop out so the party could begin concentrating on defeating President Obama.
Donald Trump, the property mogul and reality television host who briefly considered running for the nomination himself, before endorsing Mr Romney, yesterday called the other candidates “disgraceful” for slowing down the process.
“At a certain point, you have to get behind a person and you have to start going after Obama and not each other,” Mr Trump told Fox News. “And what the Republicans are doing is disgraceful.”
Mr Trump spoke for many Americans when he said: “It’s getting to be tedious.” He predicted that Mr Romney would win.
“It’s now time for us to focus on Obama, which we’re not doing. If they are good Republicans, they’re going to say, look, we’ve got to beat Obama, let’s get together. Somebody has to get together and end this thing, because now it’s getting tiresome and people are not liking it. The only one that’s liking it is Obama.”
Mr Santorum may get a boost from winning Oklahoma, North Dakota and Tennessee a week ago, and from his victory in the Kansas caucuses at the weekend.
But Messrs Romney and Gingrich did not even bother to campaign in Kansas, and Mr Romney’s campaign belittled Mr Santorum’s win: “In what was hyped as a big opportunity for Rick Santorum, he again fell short of making a dent in Mitt Romney’s already large delegate lead,” said an email sent to journalists.
Mr Romney may have won more delegates than Mr Santorum at the weekend, by taking Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and Wyoming.
He also received seven delegates from coming a distant second in Kansas.
Mr Romney has secured 454 of the 1,144 delegates he needs to win the nomination. He has won 15 states, to Mr Santorum’s eight. Mr Santorum has 217 delegates, Mr Gingrich 107 and Ron Paul 47.
Mr Romney celebrated his 65th birthday in Mobile, Alabama yesterday. Responding to Mr Santorum’s earlier jibe that he “can’t close the deal”, Mr Romney said, “We’re closing the deal, state by state, delegate by delegate. We’re pretty pleased with the progress we’re making.”
Evangelical Christians may be Mr Santorum’s secret weapon. In the 2008 election, 77 per cent of Alabama voters told exit polls they were born again; 69 per cent in Mississippi. In Tennessee’s primary last week, 73 per cent of Republican voters described themselves as evangelicals. Mr Santorum beat Mr Romney by 18 points among them.
Mr Santorum has called Alabama “the heart of conservatism”. The south is the stronghold of the Republican party, yet all three leading candidates have encountered awkwardness there. Mr Santorum admitted that he visited what he called “red Alabama” infrequently. Mr Gingrich derided the electric Chevy Volt as a liberal “Obama car” not capable of carrying a gun rack. One can put a gun rack on the Volt, but southerners prefer to mount them on pick-up trucks.
Mr Romney wins first prize for clumsy attempts to endear himself to southerners. By labelling the two states “an away game”, he reminded his audience that he is, as Mr Gingrich calls him, a Massachusetts moderate.
Evoking clichés about the south, Mr Romney told a radio station in Alabama: “I’ve become an unofficial southerner. I’m learning to say ‘y’all’ and I like grits.”
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Mr Romney used a stretched-out state flag as a back-drop in rallies. In Mississippi, whose banner incorporates the emblem of the confederacy, the flag was left to droop in a corner.
