Growth in the Irish economy will be much lower than expected this year as it reacts to higher interest rates, a leading international bank has predicted. Marc Coleman, Economics Editor, reports.
The forecast by Credit Suisse comes as a growing number of indicators point to slower employment growth in the year ahead.
Seasonally adjusted Live Register figures published yesterday recorded a jump of 1,600 people signing on last month, bringing the total close to a 12-month high.
Meanwhile, a survey of the manufacturing sector by NCB Stockbrokers indicated that employers have become negative about the prospects for employment growth.
The data came a day after US computer manufacturer Dell, which employs around 4,500 people at two Irish plants, announced that it would trim 10 per cent of its global workforce.
Credit Suisse forecasts growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) - the actual output of goods and services in the economy - will halve from 6 per cent last year to 3 per cent this year.
That would present headaches for any incoming government. In costing their election manifestos, both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael/Labour assumed that GDP growth would average more than 4 per cent over the period 2008 to 2012.
Minister for Finance Brian Cowen noted last month that his department still expects GDP to rise this year by 5.3 per cent.
"We think growth is likely to weaken significantly this year," Nevill Hill of Credit Suisse said yesterday. "High and rising interest rates are likely to bear down on both consumer spending and investment growth."
The bank cites growing indebtedness as a key reason for its prediction.
"Expansion of the household sector's balance sheet has rendered it relatively sensitive to changes in interest rates, especially as a large proportion of mortgage debt (83 per cent) is in floating rates."
The latest prognosis comes as the Central Statistics Office (CSO) confirmed that the number of people signing on the Live Register rose sharply last month. On a seasonally adjusted basis, 1,600 people joined the register in May bringing the total number to 159,800, a figure exceeded only once over the last two and a half years.
Figures from the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment, also published yesterday, show that the number of people made redundant so far this year is 10,725 - more than 8 per cent above the level at the end of May 2006.
The figures do not take account of the impending job losses at the State's second largest employer, Dell, which is cutting 10 per cent of its global workforce, or Eircom, which this week announced plans to shed 900 jobs over the next three years.
The 70 jobs lost with yesterday's announcement that the former Galtee meat plant in Mitchelstown, Co Cork will close, have also yet to be reflected in the data.
The NCB purchasing managers' index of sentiment in the manufacturing sector, also published yesterday, suggests that sentiment about employment growth in the sector turned negative last month.
While describing overall sentiment as positive, NCB chief economist Dermot O'Brien said that he was concerned by a fall in the employment component. "This is the second negative reading in three months and comes after almost a year of solid growth," Mr O'Brien said.