Lebanon:Commentary. Lara Marlowe reports on the man some say could be Lebanon's next president.
They say history repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce. The tragedy occurred 16 years ago yesterday, when the Lebanese Christian Gen Michel Aoun declared his "war of liberation" against Syrian troops in Lebanon. More than 3,500 Lebanese civilians died in the ensuing six months of bombardments.
The farce was the same, now ageing artillery officer holding a press conference in central Paris to celebrate the 16th anniversary of his futile assault on Syrian forces, even as hundreds of thousands of Lebanese rallied in Beirut's Martyrs' Square to demand, peacefully, the final departure of Syrian troops.
Or it would be farcical, if a large proportion of the Christian young people who meet nightly on Martyrs' Square were not followers of Gen Aoun. They were children during Aoun's tenure in the bunker beneath the presidential palace at Baabda. Now they drive around the streets of Ashrafieh every night hooting their horns to the rhythm of "Gen-er-al. Gen-er-al."
Aoun's old rival, Samir Geagea, the leader of the Maronite "Lebanese Forces" militia (the successor to the Phalange of Sabra and Chatila fame) is in prison, but his followers are another major component of the crowd on Martyrs' Square. They too ply the streets of Ashrafieh every night, their white flag with a red circle around a cedar tree whipping in the wind. Geagea supporters have their own horn hoot: "Ta-ta-ta-ta. Ta-ta-ta-ta."
Until yesterday, these ghosts of Aounist and Phalangist civil war factions deterred many ordinary Lebanese from joining in the anti-Syrian protests. But estimates of participation ranged as high as 800,000. To counter the show of force by the pro-Syrian Hizbullah, Lebanon's Sunni Muslims and others appear to have set the bad memories aside.
Some opposition sources believe history has proven Gen Aoun right, that he could become Lebanon's next president. "He had a simplistic message, that the Syrians had to leave," says the political scientist, Elie Kheir.
"He repeated it like a mantra for 15 years, and it's coming true."
When they met in Paris last November, the Maronite patriarch Cardinal Nasrallah Sfeir encouraged Aoun to join the anti-Syrian opposition. "Until then, he thought he was a cut above the opposition," explains Prof Kheir.
"Since his meeting with Sfeir, Aoun accepts (the 1989 peace accord) Taif (which he opposed at the time), is conciliatory towards (the Druze opposition leader Walid) Jumblatt, and calls himself part of the opposition."
Aoun may yet clash with other opposition leaders over disarming Hizbullah. The opposition do not want to antagonise the group, who have shown their ability to mobilise hundreds of thousands of Shia Muslims.
True to tradition, Aoun is the legalistic hard-liner, saying he won't talk to the Shia movement until they disarm their 20,000 fighters. Hizbullah ceased to constitute the "resistance" when Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000, Aoun argues. "All liberated territory must be under the sovereignty of the state."
It was ironic that Aoun held his press conference in the basement of a four-star hotel. In his bunker at Baabda in 1989, acolytes used to whisper "president" reverentially, though Aoun had no claim to the title.
Asked whether he aspired to Lebanon's highest office, Aoun replied: "I have worked for 15 years for the liberation of Lebanon. That is my sole objective. If the Lebanese people want me, I shall not refuse."
Though they are all Maronite Catholics, Aounists and the "Lebanese Forces" (now banned by the pro-Syrian government) fought each other twice. They are allied in opposition now.
"I have endless problems with the Aounists," sighed a former "Leb Forces" fighter who is an organiser for the opposition in Paris. "They are obsessed with Aoun becoming president. That's all that interests them."
In 1989, Aoun won over much of the French right by endlessly comparing Lebanon to France under Nazi occupation. He took up the theme again yesterday, with his usual tone of menace, when asked whether he feared the charges filed against him by the pro-Syrian attorney general, Adnan Addoum.
"When Gen de Gaulle was in exile, (the Vichy chief minister Pierre) Laval condemned him to death," Aoun said. "But when de Gaulle returned, it was Laval who was executed."
Aoun always combined vanity with a lack of physical bravery. Both characteristics were on display yesterday. He would return to Lebanon "in the next few weeks," Aoun promised. "This return, unanimously desired by all of the political components of Lebanon, will lay a foundation stone for the future Lebanon, will consolidate national reconciliation..." He predicted a "human tsunami" at Beirut airport to greet him after nearly 15 years in exile.
Pressed for details of his return, Aoun stated it would take place "between the departure of the last Syrian soldier and before the legislative election in May".