THE CABINET is expected to rule out holding the Lisbon Treaty referendum before, or alongside the European Parliament elections in June, despite significant support from some senior Ministers for an early dispatch of the issue.
Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan and Minister for Defence Willie O’Dea are both understood to be in favour of an April/May date, along with the Green Ministers, believing a speedy Yes vote would restore the country’s damaged international credibility.
However, the Opposition is not in favour. Leader of the Labour Party Eamon Gilmore yesterday feared an EU agreement on the concessions needed by Ireland before a second referendum will be held could yet prove problematic.
On Sunday, Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny said an early referendum would be “a serious mistake”, while both he and Mr Gilmore complained the Government has failed to honour promises to keep the Opposition up-to-speed with developments.
An agreement on the Irish concessions could not be reached until the next EU summit on March 21st, leaving little time to get legislation passed and a referendum commission set up before a plebiscite could be held, perhaps, in early May.
Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin and Minister of State for Europe Dick Roche have both cautioned colleagues against an early date, arguing the original timetable for October should be maintained.
“I see the benefits of an early referendum. It would take the doubt about Ireland as a location for international investment off the table, but there is still a lot of work to be done,” Mr Roche told The Irish Times last night.
The “guarantees” required by Ireland on tax, neutrality and abortion will require time to be agreed, “while a lot of domestic work still has to be done. One of the big issues last time was that people did not understand it.”
He strongly opposed holding the referendum alongside the June European Parliament and local elections: “I don’t think it would be fair to expect Fine Gael and Labour and the Greens and other parties to go out and campaign for a Yes for that and they’d be campaigning against the Government on other issues. I don’t think that is realistic and I don’t think that would come about.
“But secondly, and more importantly, I believe that a referendum which stands alone, so that the Irish people can make the judgment on the guarantees, is critical, that you can’t actually confuse a whole series of issues – byelections, local elections, European elections, referendum,” said Mr Roche.
Sinn Féin Dublin MEP Mary Lou McDonald said the Government should publish the details of the commitments agreed in December. “Without this detail and an explanation of how Government intends to ensure the Lisbon Treaty re-run ‘guarantees’ are legally binding, the Irish Times poll means little,” she said.
“The failed policies of deregulation and privatisation have fuelled the recession in Ireland as well as the economic downturn in Europe,” she said.
Labour TD Joe Costello urged caution and said it “would be very foolish indeed for the Government to read the poll findings on their face value and rush to an early rerun of the treaty referendum”.
