ANALYSIS:Turning unprecedented support into seats will be a big challenge for the Labour Party, writes STEPHEN COLLINS,Political Editor
A CONTINUING surge for the Labour Party, a decline in support for Fine Gael and a steadying in the Fianna Fáil ranks make for an intriguing set of findings in the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.
There is now little doubt that the next election will be a genuine three-way contest and the inevitable outbreak of hostilities between Fine Gael and Labour earlier this week has opened the door for a Fianna Fáil recovery.
Eamon Gilmore is easily the most popular party leader and that is translating into unprecedented levels of support for Labour. Turning that support into seats is the big challenge facing the party.
Labour has continued to make inroads in Dublin and its core vote in the capital now stands at 37 per cent, way ahead of all its rivals. The clear message is that the party should run at least two candidates in every Dublin constituency and there is now a strong case to be made for three candidates in five-seat constituencies and even in some four-seaters.
Outside the capital the party’s vote is also on the rise. In terms of core vote Labour is now the biggest party in Munster on 28 per cent and it is also the biggest in the rest of Leinster where it is getting 25 per cent. In Connacht-Ulster the party is in third place but still getting a very respectable 17 per cent rating that puts it in with a chance of winning its first-ever seats in some constituencies.
In class terms, Labour is equally strong among the best off AB voters, middle-class C1 voters and skilled C2 working-class voters, where its support level is around 30 per cent. It is a little weaker in the poorest DE social category where it is on 24 per cent, while it gets 19 per cent among farmers.
In age terms, the strongest support for Labour comes from the 50-64-year-olds where it is on 34 per cent. Among 18-24-year-olds it gets 24 per cent.
By contrast Fine Gael has slipped back across most regions, social categories and age groups. The only region where its vote has held up is Connacht-Ulster where it has actually increased to 29 per cent; but it has declined in Munster and the rest of Leinster to the 19-20 per cent range.
In Dublin the decline has slowed since the last poll with a drop to 15 per cent, far behind Labour. The worrying trend for the party is that on the eve of the local elections in 2009 Fine Gael was getting almost double the support of Labour in the capital.
In social terms, Fine Gael is strongest among farmers. In urban areas its vote is relatively evenly spread across all social classes and the party is attracting the same percentage of better off AB voters as it is among the poorest DE category.
Enda Kenny has seen a slight rise in his satisfaction rating but his lead among his own party supporters is not nearly as strong as it should be while he has a very poor rating among Labour voters. The leadership contest that he won back in June has not led to any significant change in his personal ratings.
The row over pairings that dominated political debate while the poll was being conducted may have damaged the image of Fine Gael as the party that puts the national interest first.
The party now has a real dilemma about how to try and claw its way back to first place in the run-up to an election. A more aggressive stance against the Government risks alienating middle-class voters who are worried about the country’s international standing. On the other hand, when it co-operates with the Government on major issues of national importance such as the bank guarantee, Fine Gael finds itself outflanked by the outright opposition stance of Labour.
As for Fianna Fáil, the partys TDs will take some comfort from the modest recovery in the poll, particularly as it came after such a litany of bad news on both the political and economic fronts. It appears there is a floor to the party’s level of support and it somewhere above 20 per cent.
Drawing level with Fine Gael for the first time in two years will give Fianna Fáil TDs grounds for hope that when it comes to the election they will be able to push back above the 25 per cent achieved in the local elections and make a real fight of it.
The Fianna Fáil vote in Dublin has recovered to 15 per cent – level with Fine Gael. The party has pulled ahead of Fine Gael in Munster, where it is on 22 per cent, and in the rest of Leinster, where it gets 21 per cent.
Across the age groups, Fianna Fáil does best among the over-65s, where it is on 31 per cent. People in this category are most likely to vote in an election.
In terms of social class, Fianna Fáil does best among farmers, where it gets 26 per cent. Its vote has also recovered among the C1 and C2 social categories, where it is broadly on the same level of support as Fine Gael.
Green Party support has dropped since June and the further bad news is that it is evenly spread across the country which will make retaining seats even more difficult. Party leader John Gormley’s satisfaction rating is down to 18 per cent and he is now the most unpopular of all party leaders.
Sinn Féin has also lost some support since the last poll. Like the Greens the even spread of the vote will not help it win seats and worryingly for the party, it has been swamped in Dublin, where its vote has dropped to 6 per cent.
In class terms, the party’s vote is heavily concentrated among the DE social category and it attracts very little support among higher earners. In age terms it does best among the 18-24-year-olds.
The level of support for Independents and Others is strongest in Dublin and Munster and in class terms among the best off AB voters.