CONSTITUENCY PROFILE:A DOMINANT theme in Tipperary North of late has been casino politics – what with Michael Lowry's grandiose plans to locate a casino there – but this three-seat constituency is one of a small number in which predicting the last seat is by no means a spin of the roulette wheel.
Fine Gael was shut out of this constituency for a decade until Noel Coonan reclaimed a seat in 2007. In 2011 it very much looks like Fianna Fáil is also about to be cast out into the wilderness for an unspecified – but longish – time.
Coonan is a solid constituency TD. Fine Gael’s support nationally is stratospheric. He also has rich pickings from the wedge of south Offaly that was added to the constituency. It takes slightly less than actuarial skills to deduce he will return.
The big question is: will Coonan challenge the hegemony of Lowry? The Independent TD has topped the poll at every election since he and Fine Gael parted ways 14 years ago. He has fashioned an organisation of his own in the meantime – four individuals from the group were elected to the council in 2009.
Electorally, Lowry seems to have squatting rights in Thurles but he is likely to lose some votes because of his support since 2008 for a government to which the public has grown increasingly hostile. That guilt by association will dent his support but his bete noir status in some quarters and the controversies that surrounded him have never affected voters in his constituency. He will be elected and may top the poll.
The big tussle will be for the third seat. Most of the action will take place in the north of the constituency with Nenagh, Newport and Ballina as the battlegrounds. Here, Fianna Fáil TD Máire Hoctor is desperately trying to stave off the challenge of Labour’s Alan Kelly.
Kelly, the MEP for Ireland South, has mounted a high-profile PR campaign and has a knack of attaining visibility.
Hoctor achieved a minor victory at her selection convention last month by facing down the challenge of councillor Michael Smith, a son of the former minister. But Kelly presents a more formidable challenge and has hounded Lowry and the mild-mannered Hoctor on the issue of Nenagh General Hospital. Possessed of confidence that rivals characterise as arrogance, he has assumed a leading role on the hospital action committee.
Kelly has one credibility issue: when elected as MEP two years ago, he gave assurances he would not stand for the Dáil. His excuse has been that the State has since fallen into such crisis that the situation demands his candidacy.
Séamus Morris of Sinn Féin will improve on his 1,600 votes from the last election, while a Green candidate and two other Independents are likely to garner a few hundred votes.
