Mahathir election win secures vital majority but undermines his 18-year grip on power

When a conservative Islamic party took control of the Malaysian state of Kelantan some years ago it introduced several measures…

When a conservative Islamic party took control of the Malaysian state of Kelantan some years ago it introduced several measures to enforce Islamic law.

These included separate male and female supermarket checkouts, a ban on alcohol, and the renaming of the Beach of Passionate Love to the Moonlight Beach.

But Kelantan, run by the Islamic Party of Malaysia (Pas) is just one remote corner of Malaysia.

The other 12 states and two federal districts, and the national government, have since 1957 been controlled by Dr Mahathir Mohamad's UMNO party, the biggest in the coalition government, also Muslim, but more secular in outlook.

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Monday's election, however, produced a surge of support for Pas which could threaten the equilibrium of Malaysia's multiethnic and inter-denominational society.

While the government won the election with a resounding victory margin of 148 to 45, it failed to win back Kalantan, lost a second state, Terengganu, to Pas and got a big scare in Kedah and Perlis.

It was, as the pro-government Star newspaper, put it, "UMNO's Worst Fears Come True".

Under siege by Pas, UMNO saw its seats in parliament fall from 94 to 74 while Pas leaped from eight to 27 and took a quarter of state seats being contested.

Seven government ministers lost to Pas candidates and the Education Minister, Mr Najib Razak, a possible successor to Dr Mahathir as UMNO leader, saw his majority of 10,793 reduced to the wafer-thin margin of 241. "We need to study in detail the reasons for this," said Mr Najib yesterday. "UMNO must pay attention to the Malay belt areas."

The driving force behind Pas was resentment over Dr Mahathir's treatment of his onetime deputy, Mr Anwar Ibrahim, a former Islamic youth leader who was jailed and beaten in detention.

"As long as the government continues with its wrong-doings and does not repent, this wind of change will blow to other states as well," said the Pas President, Mr Fadzil Noor.

A major split now exists in UMNO's power base of peninsular Malaysia, and this is likely to continue as long as Dr Mahathir stays in charge.

A senior western diplomat said: "People who feel their seats are under threat will be asking what can be done to get the vote back again. Mahathir is likely to be encouraged to go, sooner rather than later."

Thus while Dr Mahathir won the election handsomely, securing 148 of the 193 parliament seats and the vital two-thirds majority to push through his economic programme, the result has actually undermined his 18-year grip on power.

He could face a challenge when UMNO holds a triennial leadership vote next summer, though a strong alternative candidate has yet to emerge.

The dilemma for Dr Mahathir is that if he adopts a more conservative Islamic policy to woo back Pas voters, he will alienate Chinese, Indian and Sarawak support.

Most non-Malays remained loyal to the government as a source of stability. Many Chinese reject the opposition coalition because of its association with a fundamental Islamic party. Mr Lim Kit Siang, leader of the China-based opposition party (DAP), who lost the seat he held for 30 years, said Malaysia was "headed for a very uncertain and perilous future".

Added to the concerns of UMNO are the respectable votes gained by the pro-reform Justice Party (Keadilan) founded by Mr Anwar's wife, Dr Wan Azizah, which took five seats in its first election and came very close in other constituencies.

The opposition coalition of four parties more than doubled its seats to 45.

These setbacks for the government occurred despite a fast-reviving economy and a compliant media.

Yesterday the Bangkok-based Asian Network for Free Elections cast doubt on the fairness of the vote itself, saying it had proof of irregularities.