WITH just six weeks to go to the Westminster general election and with the peace process on hold, the political parties in Northern Ireland are bracing themselves ford a tough fight for the 18 seats allocated to them in the House of Commons.
The prospects of a significant change in the political landscape of Northern Ireland hinge on the solidity of the previous pacts between the two major strands of unionism. A breakdown in these could allow SDLP and Sinn Fein take new seats.
In the event of an IRA ceasefire there is a slight possibility of a pact between the SDLP and Sinn Fein. Such a development could gross nationalists up to eight seats but it is thought to be unlikely. The SDLP has ruled out any electoral deal with Sinn Fein in the absence of a complete cessation of violence by the IRA.
In the past, unwritten agreements have allowed the Ulster Unionist MP for Fermanagh South Tyrone, Mr Ken Maginnis, to scoop the mainly nationalist constituency.
Likewise the DUP's Rev William McCrea has successfully maintained his place in Westminster as the MP for Mid Ulster, another mainly nationalist constituency, due to the split vote between the SDLP and Sinn Fein.
Recently stark divisions between the two main unionist parties have been evident, with public arguments taking place over pacts. The issue of tactical voting has seriously strained the relationship.
The decision of the Ulster Unionist, Mr Reg Empey, to challenge the sitting MP in East Belfast, the DUP deputy leader, Mr Peter Robinson, and the decision by the DUP to stand Mr Robinson's wife, Iris, against the Ulster Unionist deputy leader, Mr John Taylor, in the Strangford constituency are cases in point and have worsened unionist divisions.
There were reports yesterday that an unknown independent DUP candidate may stand against Mr Maginnis in Fermanagh South Tyrone. This would be the first time any other unionist has stood against the sitting MP in the past 14 years.
The main focus in this election will be on Sinn Fein. The party leader, Mr Gerry Adams, hopes to regain his seat in West Belfast. This was lost to the SDLP's Dr Joe Hendron in the 1992 general selection. Then Dr Hendron defeated Mr Adams by a margin of 589 votes in a bitterly fought campaign.
The support or lack of it for Sinn Fein since the breakdown of the IRA ceasefire will be a key factor in West Belfast. During the Forum elections last May, there was considerable support for Sinn Fein, which won four out of the five seats.
The party was still riding high on the peace ticket, despite the bombing of Canary Wharf in London and the end of the ceasefire. However, since last May, the escalation in IRA activity appears to have lost Sinn Fein much of its support.
Allegations that the West Belfast electoral register is riddled with multiple entries and the names of the dead have fuelled suspicion about the real support for Sinn Fein. On the other hand, the constituency boundary in West Belfast has been widened to include republican areas such as Poleglass.
For the first time, an 18th constituency seat will be up for grabs in West Tyrone. Again Sinn Fein and the SDLP will be battling for supremacy. The DUP has called for an agreed unionist candidate to fight the seat but the Ulster Unionists appear reluctant to do a deal.
West Tyrone has a nationalist majority but the SDLP leader, Mr John Hume, has rebuffed calls for a nationalist pact. Standing are Sinn Fein vice chairman, Mr Pat Doherty, and the SDLP's Mr Joe Byrne.
The SDLP chairman, Mr Jonathan Stephenson, said: "West Tyrone is a swing seat. At the Forum election, which was fought under special circumstances, the SDLP were ahead of Sinn Fein and only 3,000 odd votes behind the combined unionist total. Whether the unionists unite or not, we are confident that our good local candidate, Joe Byrne, will take this seat."
In a surprise move, Sinn Fein has omitted its usual candidate for Mid Ulster, Mr Francie Molloy, in favour of the party's ardchomhairle member and chief negotiator, Mr Martin McGuinness. At the Forum elections last May, Sinn Fein scooped the lion's share of the votes - 13,000 votes compared to the SDLP's 12,482 votes.
Again, if there is no challenge from the Ulster Unionists, the DUP's Rev William McCrea is likely to use the split nationalist vote to regain his seat.
There had been speculation that the leadership of Sinn Fein and the SDLP may endorse "independent" or "non aligned" candidates in the West Tyrone and Mid Ulster constituencies. The former Taoiseach, Mr Albert Reynolds, was one name mentioned in this context.