SUPPORT IS growing for the Lisbon Treaty with a further swing to the Yes camp in recent months as the State’s economic situation deteriorated, according to the Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll.
The poll shows that 51 per cent would now vote Yes, an increase of eight points since the last Irish Times poll in November, with 33 per cent saying they would vote No, a drop of six points. There are still 16 per cent in the “Don’t Know” category (down 2 points). When undecided voters are excluded, the Yes side has 60.7 per cent, with 39.3 per cent in the No camp. That compares to the referendum result last June of 53.4 per cent No and 46.6 per cent Yes.
Despite the turnaround in the public mood since last June, there is no guarantee the Yes side will win the second referendum and everything will hinge on the campaign.
In the poll, people were asked how they would vote in the light of the commitment to allow Ireland to retain a European Union commissioner along with legal guarantees on other Irish concerns about neutrality, abortion and taxation.
Voters were also asked if, in the light of the current economic crisis, they thought it was better to be part of the EU. An overwhelming 80 per cent thought it better to be part of the EU, 13 per cent thought it was not and 7 per cent had no opinion.
The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday, among a representative sample of 1,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies.
The margin of error is 3 per cent.
Support for the Yes side is strongest among better-off voters and there is a big gender difference with men more inclined to vote Yes than women. In party terms, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael voters are almost equally strongly in favour.
A clear majority of Labour and Green Party supporters are also in the Yes camp, with Sinn Féin the only party whose supporters still back the No campaign. Fianna Fáil voters back the treaty by 60 per cent to 31 per cent, while Fine Gael voters support it by 59 per cent to 29 per cent. Labour voters favour Lisbon by 53 per cent to 34 per cent, while Greens back it by 57 per cent to 33 per cent.
Sinn Féin voters support a No by a margin of 49 per cent to 30 per cent.
In the last Irish Times poll before the referendum in June, only Fianna Fáil and Green supporters professed themselves in favour of the treaty, with a majority of Fine Gael and Labour voters rejecting the advice of their party leaders and voting No.
Among the most well-off AB voters, the Yes side now has a commanding lead of 66 per cent to 18 per cent, but among the less well-off DE voters, the No side leads by 42 per cent to 38 per cent. In the largest C1 social category, covering lower-middle-class voters, the Yes side has a lead of 55 to 30 per cent.
Farmers are now in favour of the treaty by 66 per cent to 20 per cent, which represents a substantial shift since the last Irish Times poll in June.
A continuing weakness in the Yes campaign is the failure to convince women to support the treaty. While a majority of women are now in the Yes camp, support is still much stronger among men.
Among women, 47 per cent intend to vote Yes and 35 per cent intend to vote No, with 19 per cent in the “Don’t Know” category. Men are in support of the treaty by 56 per cent to 32 per cent, with 12 per cent having no opinion.
Across the age groups, there is now a Yes majority in every category with the strongest support coming from those over 65 and the weakest among those aged 35-49.
