Majority accepts SF bona fides

Analysis: The public remains tolerant of Sinn Féin and sceptical of claims that the IRA robbed the bank, writes Mark Brennock…

Analysis: The public remains tolerant of Sinn Féin and sceptical of claims that the IRA robbed the bank, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent

The remarkable strength of the public's acceptance of Sinn Féin's place in the North's political process, and possibly in the Republic's Government in the near future, is clear from this poll.

The Taoiseach, his Ministers, the British prime minister and most of the press have backed the assertion of the PSNI chief constable, Mr Hugh Orde, that he believes the IRA carried out the Northern Bank robbery. Yet a large majority believes "business as usual" with Sinn Féin should continue.

Some 62 per cent believe negotiations with the party towards an overall deal should continue, with just 26 per cent believing it should be suspended until the governments are satisfied there is a verified end to IRA criminal activity.

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This suggests the public is more forgiving of Sinn Féin than the Government. It has indicated that the next talks with Sinn Féin will be on the criminality issue and will not be a resumption of political negotiations. Most of the public believes it should simply get on with the negotiations.

Indeed there is also considerable voter scepticism about the assertion that the IRA carried out the robbery in the first place.

Only a minority of voters - 47 per cent - accepts this claim with 19 per cent rejecting it and 34 per cent reserving judgment, saying they don't know or they express no opinion.

This is a remarkable withholding of agreement in a situation where there has been a substantial and vociferous consensus within the political establishment and media that the IRA did it.

This poll was taken last Monday and Tuesday, after a period of sustained claims by politicians north and south that Sinn Féin was trying to have it both ways: to be a full part of the democratic process while tolerating a private army operating outside that democratic process.

The Minister for Justice, Mr McDowell, has been to the fore in challenging Sinn Féin on this, questioning whether it is truly committed to ending all violence and criminality.

Again, despite this, a greater number of people accept that Sinn Féin is committed to working to end all paramilitary violence and criminal activity. Some 46 per cent believe it is committed to working towards the ending of all paramilitary violence and criminal activity, 32 per cent believe it is not, 18 per cent don't know and 4 per cent have no opinion. Belief in Sinn Féin's future peaceful intentions is strongest in Connacht/Ulster, where 59 per cent believe it is committed to ending such activity, 21 per cent that it is not, 17 per cent don't know and 4 per cent have no opinion.

Women are much less likely than men to believe in Sinn Féin's peaceful intent. Among men 53 per cent believe it is committed to working towards the ending of violence and criminal activity, 30 per cent that it is not, 14 per cent don't know and 2 per cent have no opinion.

Just 39 per cent of women believe Sinn Féin is committed to ending this activity, 34 per cent that it is not, 22 per cent don't know and 5 per cent have no opinion. There is also a significant difference among social groups, with the better-off less likely to believe in the party's peaceful intentions than the lower socio economic groups.

Supporters of Fine Gael and the PDs disbelieve Sinn Féin. Just 34 per cent of Fine Gael supporters think Sinn Féin is committed to working to end violent and criminal activity, 44 per cent that it is not, 19 per cent don't know and 3 per cent have no opinion.

There are regional differences on the question of whether people believe the IRA was responsible for the Northern Bank raid. Overall, 47 per cent believe it was, 19 per cent that it was not, 29 per cent don't know and 5 per cent gave no opinion. However, the denials of IRA involvement are given much more credence in Connacht- Ulster, where 36 per cent believe the IRA was responsible, 32 per cent that it was not, 30 per cent don't know and 3 per cent have no opinion.

Those who deeply mistrust Sinn Féin will be alarmed by the apparent acceptance by significant numbers of people of the party's bona fides and suitability for Government in the wake of the raid. However, it is not possible to conclude that those who appear tolerant in this poll are indifferent to violence.