Iraq:The Iraqi prime minister's new coalition will not solve a crisis that may see him ousted as early as next month, writes Michael Jansen.
The coalition formed this week by prime minister Nuri al-Maliki is unlikely to resolve Iraq's government crisis. The grouping brings together four parties which have dominated the post-war scene. These are Shia fundamentalist Dawa and the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and Kurdish Democratic Party.
According to the Arabic daily al-Hayat, these parties have a total of 110 seats in the 275-member parliament, 28 short of a simple majority. This means that the Maliki government could face votes of no confidence once parliament reconvenes in September and cannot be expected to tackle controversial issues, thereby prolonging intercommunal strife.
Following the 2005 poll, Dawa and the SIIC emerged at the head of a Shia alliance which held 128 seats and could count on the Kurds to make up a solid voting majority. But the Shia alliance has fallen apart. Fadhila, with 15 seats, and the followers of radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, with 32, pulled out and were not approached by Maliki to participate in the new coalition.
Thirty Shia independents have recently deserted, reducing the Shia alliance to 55 seats. The Kurds have another 53-58.
Maliki was unable to persuade the Iraqi Accordance Front, the largest Sunni bloc with 44 seats, to take part.
The National Dialogue Front, with 11, the other Sunni party, was not invited. The secular Iraqi National Party, with 25 seats, rejected association with the fundamentalist Shia-Kurd grouping.
If parties outside the coalition and independents decide to get together they would have 157 votes and could oust Maliki. Iraqi exiles say his fall is being engineered by former premier Ayad Allawi, who heads the Iraqi National Party. Although Washington's favourite for the post, he may be prepared to stand aside for Mehdi Hafez, a secular Shia and former minister of planning who was not a member of the banned Baath party, as was Allawi.
Analysts argue that Tuesday's devastating bombing of Kurdish Yezidi villages could be part of the northern power struggle rather than a straightforward attack on one of Iraq's minorities. Arabs and Turkomen reject Kurdish plans to annex to the three Kurdish majority provinces, parts of Nineva and Diyala provinces, along with the city of Kirkuk and nearby oilfields.
A recent bombing at a Turkomen village is also said to be a part of the sharpening conflict over this disputed region.