The current Coalition is marginally in front only among better-off voters, writes Stephen Collins.
Support for a Fine Gael-Labour coalition, with the possible support of the Greens, has increased substantially over the past five months, according to The Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll. Back in November the Opposition alternative was trailing 11 points behind the Fianna Fáil-Progressive Democrat coalition, but it has now moved one point ahead.
Asked which of two possible coalitions - Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats or Fine Gael, Labour and possibly the Greens - they would like to see forming the next government, 36 per cent opted for the Fine Gael-Labour led alternative while 35 per cent supported the current Coalition.
Fifteen per cent said they would not like to see either alternative forming the next government, while 14 per cent had no opinion.
Fine Gael supporters are the most enthusiastic about the alternative, with 84 per cent of them backing a coalition with the possible support of the Greens. Only last Friday Enda Kenny asked Fine Gael supporters to transfer their votes to the Greens, and it appears they agree with the tactic.
It is striking that across the social groupings farmers are the strongest supporters of a Fine Gael-Labour-Green coalition, with 40 per cent of them backing the option compared with 37 per cent for the current Government. It would indicate that farmers are not as afraid of Green involvement in government as some Ministers in the current Coalition think.
Among working-class C2DE voters, a Fine Gael-led alternative coalition is also ahead, and it is only among the better-off ABC1 voters that the current Coalition is marginally in front. Across the age groups neither side has a significant lead. A Fine Gael-led coalition is ahead among younger voters and the Fianna Fáil-PD combination leads with the over-65s.
Interestingly, while women are almost equally divided, with a marginal preference for the Fine Gael-Labour alternative, far more women than men express no opinion on the issue. Married people are more inclined to back a Fine Gael-led government with single people more likely to support the current Coalition.
In regional terms a Fine Gael-led coalition is marginally ahead in Dublin but it has a substantial 10-point lead in the rest of Leinster. It is three points behind another Fianna Fáil-PD coalition in Munster, and five behind in Connacht-Ulster.
Labour voters are not quite as enthusiastic about the alternative coalition but it still gets strong backing, with 69 per cent of them supporting it. Among Green voters, 61 per cent support the option. There is even a reasonable level of support for the option among Sinn Féin voters, with twice as many of them favouring a Fine Gael-led coalition to a Fianna Fáil-led one.
Fianna Fáil voters strongly support the current Coalition, with 83 per cent opting for a repeat, but among PD supporters just 52 per cent want a return of the present Government.
When asked which of the two coalition options was likely to form the next government, a different picture emerges, with 41 per cent saying a Fianna Fáil-PD coalition and just 23 per cent of people saying a Fine Gael-Labour led government.
TNS mrbi also asked voters what kind of coalition they would favour if neither of the two alternative coalitions had enough seats to form a government. Voters were offered a range of options involving Fianna Fáil and the five next biggest parties in the Dáil.
By far the biggest number - 37 per cent - favoured none of the options offered. The Fianna Fáil-Labour option emerged first among the available options, with 19 per cent support. Just 27 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters favoured such a deal while 45 per cent of Labour voters opted for it.
A Fianna Fáil-PD coalition was the next choice, with 16 per cent support. It was the most popular option with Fianna Fáil voters, with 32 per cent in favour, while 48 per cent of PDs opted for it.
The next most favoured choice was a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin coalition, with 10 per cent support. It was naturally the most popular choice for Sinn Féin voters with 62 per cent of them backing it, while it got the support of 10 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters.
The Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael grand coalition idea won the backing of just 8 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters and 18 per cent of Fine Gael supporters. The clear majority of Fine Gael supporters, 53 per cent, had no opinion about who Fianna Fáil should form a coalition with in a hung Dáil.
The Fianna Fáil-Green coalition was the least popular option of all, with just under 9 per cent support. It got the backing of 10 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters and 58 per cent of Green voters.
There were some interesting variations in support for coalition options across regions, age and class. The Fianna Fáil-Labour option was not all that popular in Dublin, with just 16 per cent support, but it jumped to 25 per cent in the rest of Leinster and was at 20 per cent in Munster. Across the age groups it was least popular among younger voters, with just 11 per cent support, while it was most popular among the over-65s, with 29 per cent.
By contrast, the Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin option was the most popular among 18-24-year-olds, with 19 per cent backing, making it the most popular option of all among that age group. This option was least popular among over-65s. In line with the disproportionately low level of support for Sinn Féin among women, the coalition option involving the party was much less popular with women than men. The Fianna Fáil-Green option came out best among Dublin voters, and was least popular in Connacht-Ulster.