US Federal Reserve chairman Mr Alan Greenspan will offer his prognosis for the US economy today.
Financial markets will listen intently for signals that one of the most aggressive US interest-rate-cutting cycles in history is near or at an end.
The Fed chief was set to deliver his first substantive comments on the economic outlook since last October before a blue-riband business crowd amid growing signs the worst of the recession that started last March may be past.
Starting just over 12 months ago, the US central bank embarked on a sustained round of 11 interest-rate cuts that brought its federal funds lending rate to a 40-year low of 1.75 per cent last month.
Yesterday, government figures showed the number of new workers applying for unemployment benefits fell last week by 56,000 to a seasonally adjusted 395,000 from 451,000 a week earlier.
Figures released by chain stores implied the holiday shopping season was not quite as dismal as earlier thought - a point of importance because continued strong consumer spending is vital to the economy's health.
An influential group of private economists, Blue Chip Economic Indicators, said yesterday over 90 per cent of its members now felt the recession will be pegged as having lifted before the end of March.