Former minister for foreign affairs Micheál Martin is considered the overwhelming favourite among his party colleagues to become the next leader of Fianna Fáil after his decision to publicly challenge the leadership of Taoiseach Brian Cowen.
Following the refusal to other potential leaders to show their hands publicly, Mr Martin can be confident that a large proportion of the TDs who voted no confidence in Mr Cowen last night will back him as leader. That includes the vast majority of TDs in Cork and in surrounding counties, in addition to some Dublin-based TDs.
Mr Martin is also the most likely to draw the support of many of the so-called middle ground TDs within the party: those who have backed Mr Cowen through thick and thin and who will be looking for a moderate and plausible figure to lead the party in opposition.
The fact that Mr Martin had the courage to stick his head above the parapet has buttressed his claim to be favourite, though there has been some muted criticism about his decision not to resign.
Conversely, the leadership prospects of the other putative candidates has slipped back in the past week because of the public stances – or indeed the lack of a public stance – that they have separately adopted.
Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan was long seen as the favourite to succeed Mr Cowen. He brought a confidence and authority to the difficult Finance brief and gave the sense that he was in control. In addition, because of his relatively recent elevation to the Cabinet, his reputation was not tainted in the same way as his colleagues who were in the Cabinet during all of the boom years.
However, Mr Lenihan’s status and reputation has lost a lot of sheen in recent months. His predictions for economic recovery on the back of his policies have not materialised. Indeed, many of the eventualities he said could not happen – nationalisation of banks; the necessity for huge capital injections; IMF-EU intervention – have indeed happened.
There are also question marks surrounding his health.
However, the real damage was done to Lenihan’s chances yesterday when he came out and said he would support the Taoiseach in last night’s vote. Two of the prominent dissident TDs, Sean Power and John McGuinness, effectively accused him of hypocrisy, suggesting that he himself had encouraged dissent against Mr Cowen several months ago. While Mr Lenihan vigorously denied it, the criticism will be seen to have damaged his leadership ambitions.
Mary Hanafin is the third senior figure in the party to have declared an interest. In recent weeks, her public comments have all but suggested that Cowen should have resigned but she actually stopped short of doing it. However, unlike Mr Martin, she declined to state her views in public in the run-up to last night’s meeting.
For some TDs, this was prevarication and oscillation, and did not enhance her standing. There is a sense that Ms Hanafin would not have the support of a sufficient number of TDs to mount a successful challenge in the post-Cowen era.
The fourth candidate is Minister for Social Protection Éamon Ó Cuív. Unlike the other three, he is seen as a Cowen loyalist.
Mr Ó Cuív’s standing in the party has increased dramatically during the economic and fiscal crisis. He has been one of the most forthright of Fianna Fáil Ministers in saying that deep cuts were necessary. Like Ms Hanafin, however, he is not seen as a candidate who could command substantial support within the parliamentary party.
The timing of a leadership contest has always been considered crucial. A pre-election process would obviously favour Mr Martin. He is already declared and has already started doing the groundwork and the ring-arounds.
In an after-election scenario, all bets will be off. Only Mr Lenihan is considered to hold a safe seat – besides all four contenders will see much of their support base wiped out in a general election.
Into the reckoning then will become young candidates – the Ógra generation – who argue that Fianna Fáil should skip a generation to rebuild. The leading candidate from that crop is Dara Calleary but the likes of Barry Andrews; Peter Power; Niall Collins; Thomas Byrne and Michael McGrath could also lay claim.
THE CONTENDERS
Micheál Martin
The fromer minister for foreign affairs (50) has been a TD for over 21 years and has been a senior Minister for over 13 years. He is a Deputy for Cork South Central, and is likely to attract the support of most other TDs from Cork, with the exception of the Minister for Enterprise Batt O’Keeffe, a strong supporter of Brian Cowen.
Mr Martin’s main political achievement has been introducing the smoking ban as Minister for Enterprise. However, he has been associated with several controversies, particularly the one relating to unauthorised charges being imposed on patients in long-term residential care.
A recent Irish Times opinion poll identified Mr Martin as the popular choice to replace Mr Cowen. However, his public popularity is not wholly reflected within the parliamentary party.
Brian Lenihan
The 51-year-old TD for Dublin West is one of the newest member of Cabinet but in his four years as a senior Minister, he has held two of the most senior portfolios – Justice and Finance.
A barrister by profession, Mr Lenihan became a TD in 1996 winning a byelection for the seat left vacant by the death of his later father, also Brian Lenihan. His brother Conor is also a Fianna Fáil TD.
After a shaky start as finance minister, Mr Lenihan quickly read into the brief and assumed a confidence and authority within a comparatively short period of time. He has presided over three major hairshirt budgets. However, his stock has fallen, partly because of his over-confident prediction for recovery, some of which failed to materialise, and the Government’s failure to prevent intervention by the EU and IMF.
Dublin West is changing from a three-seat to four-seat constituency, a change that is seen as improving Mr Lenihan’s chances.
Mary Hanafin
The 51-year old TD for Dún Laoghaire has not had a close relationship with Brian Cowen and is seen as having been demoted by him when he moved her from Education to, first, Social Protection and then to Tourism and Arts. However, she is perceived as an energetic minister who has maintained a high profile in each portfolio she has held.
Ms Hanafin is seen as a competent and tough minister with good communications skills and is seen as one of the more accessible members of Cabinet.
She has not hidden her disenchantment with Mr Cowen’s leadership in recent months and in recent media appearances has failed to confirm her confidence in his leadership.
Éamon Ó’Cuív
Like many other senior figures in Fianna Fáil, Éamon Ó’Cuív (60) is a member of a famous Fianna Fáil dynasty – he is the grandson of party founder Éamon de Valera.
Born in Dublin, he has lived in Connemara for most of his adult life and has been a TD for Galway West since 1992. He became a senior Minister after the 2002 General Election.
It seemed that Mr Ó Cuív was fated to serve out his entire ministerial career in one department – Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs.
However, in Mr Cowen’s most recent reshuffle last year, he was appointed as Minister for Social Protection. He has since gained a reputation among colleagues for hitherto unseen toughness, especially in a Department where deep cuts are being inflicted. Mr Ó Cuív is seen as old-fashioned and not a personality politician.
Young Pretenders
A number of younger TDs have argued that the party should wait until after the election before choosing a new leader. They have also argued that Fianna Fáil should skip a generation in choosing a new leader. Most of this group are in their 30s or in their early 40s.
The two most prominent members of the so-called Ógra Generation are the two Ministers of State, Dara Calleary and Barry Andrews.
However, a number of supporters of more senior contenders have said they have not seen too much charisma in evidence among this generation. They have also specifically criticised Mr Calleary in terms of his stewardship of the Croke Park Agreement and Mr Andrews, who as Minister for Children, has had to defend some serious failures in child protection policies within the HSE.
Others who are mentioned as possible future contenders are Thomas Byrne (Meath West); Niall Collins (Limerick West) ; Darragh O’Brien (Dublin North); and the Cork South Central Deputy Michael McGrath.
