May general election likely as poll gives boost to Blair

Mr Tony Blair has until Monday to decide whether to defy Mr William Hague and the foot-and-mouth crisis and risk a May 3rd general…

Mr Tony Blair has until Monday to decide whether to defy Mr William Hague and the foot-and-mouth crisis and risk a May 3rd general election.

The conventional wisdom at Westminster last night was that the Prime Minister would probably come to a decision after inspecting the up-to-the-minute polling data on Sunday - with June 7th still being canvassed as an alternative polling date, should Mr Blair decide he needs more time to demonstrate that the government is on-course to bring the foot-and-mouth epidemic under control.

Significantly, perhaps, it is understood the Chancellor, Mr Gordon Brown, favours sticking with Labour's original plan to hold the general election on the same day as the scheduled county council contests.

The Prime Minister is said to be still undecided. However, in the Commons yesterday, Mrs Margaret Beckett appeared again to signal the government's determination not to postpone the council elections, repeating last week's line that to do so would send a very negative signal to the outside world.

READ MORE

Labour enthusiasts for an early election seized on the latest MORI poll giving Mr Blair a 19-point lead over the Tories as the Conservative leader, Mr William Hague, attempted to box-in the Prime Minister - for the first time explicitly urging him to postpone the election while accusing him of putting party before country.

Speaking in North Yorkshire, Mr Hague declared: "I wouldn't have an election at this point to date. To do that in these circumstances, with people so desperate . . . that really would be putting party before country."

But Mr Blair was bouyed by that MORI poll, showing Labour's commanding lead unaffected by the foot-and-mouth crisis. As the backlog in the numbers of animals awaiting slaughter fell by some 7,000, there was speculation in some quarters that the logistical assault under way by 800 troops might be turning the numbers game there, too, slightly in Mr Blair's favour.

The poll showed support for Labour unchanged at 50 per cent, with the Conservatives at 31 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats on 14 per cent. That suggested an increase of just one point in support for the Conservatives despite Mr Hague's contention that the government has been consistently "behind the game" in responding to the crisis in the countryside.

However, the poll did reveal polarisation between urban and rural opinion, with a three-point fall in support for Labour in rural and semi-rural areas, and Tory support in these areas up from 26 per cent to 35 per cent while falling one point to 28 per cent in urban areas.

The cabinet apparently managed to complete a 90-minute session at Downing Street yesterday without any reference to the election questions gripping Westminster. But while Mr Hague attempted to shrug off his latest poll setback, the great guessing game continued.

Sources close to the Conservative leader said Mr Blair must have access to the same private polling evidence available to the Conservative Central Office suggesting as many as 20 per cent of voters were still undecided about how they would vote in the general election.

While that augmented Tory arguments for delay, however, some Labour strategists found in Mr Blair's seeming ability to maintain his lead whatever the bad news their own argument for delay - and a strategy to "shoot Hague's fox".

Under one scenario being canvassed around Westminster yesterday, Mr Blair could cancel the council elections for anything up to a year while indicating his intention to use a lengthy Easter recess to concentrate on overcoming the foot-and-mouth crisis and delaying any announcement about the general election until late April.

PA adds: The Archbishop of York last night urged Mr Blair to delay the general election until the autumn because of the foot-and-mouth crisis. The Rt Rev David Hope, the second most senior bishop in the Church of England, warned that many people would be disenfranchised if an election was held while the disease was prevalent.

According to the Times,which published an interview with him, his call was backed by a number of other senior bishops, including the Bishop of Exeter, the Rt Rev Michael Langrish.

Meanwhile, a new poll claimed yesterday that Britain's business leaders would overwhelmingly prefer Mr Blair to Mr Hague as a chief executive in a fantasy management team.