With just two days to go to polling in the presidential election, a new opinion poll has given Prof Mary McAleese 49 per cent of the first preference vote, a total that could see her elected on the second count. The Irish Independent poll, published today, shows the Government nominee continuing to gain ground and well ahead of the field in the race to become the eighth President of Ireland.
Support for her closest rival, Ms Mary Banotti, is registering at 32 per cent, but the continuing slump in backing for the People's Alliance candidate, Ms Adi Roche, will deprive the Fine Gael candidate of the transfer votes necessary to mount an effective challenge.
According to today's figures, the Queen's University law lecturer will be elected with 60 per cent of the vote to 40 per cent for Ms Banotti.
The dramatic decline in Ms Roche's electoral support, reaching a new low of just 7 per cent, puts her level with Dana (Rosemary Scallon); the Independent candidate, Mr Derek Nally, is at 5 per cent. The latest poll was conducted by Irish Marketing Surveys Ltd (IMS) among 1,103 adults at 100 points throughout the country last Saturday. An Irish Times/MRBI poll, published last Saturday, showed Prof McAleese on course to be elected, having increased her core support and attracting a higher level of transfers than Ms Banotti from each of the other three candidates.
Her ability to attract cross-party transfers is holding up in today's findings. In addition to securing the support of seven out of every 10 Fianna Fail voters, the poll suggests she will also take one-infive votes from Fine Gael and Labour supporters. But in spite of the nomination of the Progressive Democrats, only 50 per cent of the party's voters say they will support her.
Ms Roche could now find herself finishing in fourth position, behind Dana. More Labour voters are actually giving support to Prof McAleese than to their own candidate; only a quarter of them are prepared to back Ms Roche, while 27 per cent intend to vote for Prof McAleese and 33 per cent are supporting Ms Banotti.
Clearly unscathed by allegations of Sinn Fein sympathies, Prof McAleese has weathered sustained negative campaigning, particularly from Fine Gael, and it appears that the controversy may have even assisted her performance.
The poll registers strong disapproval of the Fine Gael leader, Mr John Bruton, for his criticism of her. His rating has slipped sharply, by 15 points to 48 per cent, on the last IMS findings in September.
A total of 64 per cent believe Mr Bruton was unfair for attacking her in the wake of comments by the Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams, that he would give her his vote. This negative view is, remarkably, held by half of Fine Gael voters.
Meanwhile, satisfaction with the Government is holding, at 60 per cent, but the Mr Ahern's rating as Taoiseach has dropped by 7 points to 66 per cent.