A measles epidemic is almost inevitable, Irish medical experts warned last night, after the Department of Health revealed that one in four children are not being vaccinated against the disease.
The State would require a vaccination rate of 95 per cent to protect against the rapid spread of measles, according to the director of the National Disease Surveillance Centre, Dr Darina O'Flanagan. But just 77 per cent of two-year-olds had received their measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccination up to the end of last year.
British medical authorities have warned that a measles epidemic in Britain is now almost inevitable early in the new millennium because the vaccination rate has fallen to 87 per cent. The Irish population would be equally vulnerable, Dr O'Flanagan believes.
Based on the pattern of recent epidemics, a new outbreak of the highly infectious disease was due here in the next year or two, she warned. There were outbreaks in 1985 (9,903 cases), 1989 (1,248) and 1993 (4,328).
"There is a pattern of epidemics occurring every four years," she said. There had been a major publicity campaign for the MMR vaccination in 1994-95 and this may have put back the next epidemic, she noted.
"I have no doubt that unless we get our take-up rate up to 95 per cent within the next few years we can expect a major increase in the number of our measle cases."
A Royal College of Surgeons bio-statistician, Mr Ronan Conroy, said the public had become complacent about the dangers posed by diseases. "But they are like the wolves and the camp fire. They are waiting for the blaze to die down and then they are back," he said.
Public health experts depended on herd immunity to protect populations from the spread of disease. The greater the number of people who were not vaccinated, the greater the chance of someone with measles coming into contact with an unvaccinated person and spreading the disease.
"Contagious diseases will be the thing of the new millennium," Mr Conroy said. "In the battle against heart disease and cancer we can only win, but in research into infectious diseases we are dealing with live organisms which can adapt, and the laws of natural selection mean they are adapting."
The Irish vaccination figures were disappointing and a cause for concern, Dr O'Flanagan said. "While many parents may think that measles is a minor illness, in some children it is not. It can cause severe brain damage." One child in every 10,000 children who get measles will die.
Dr O'Flanagan said there had been much misinformation about the MMR which may have discouraged parents from having their children vaccinated. "Links between the vaccination and autism have been found by new studies to be without foundation, but unfortunately they have not received the same press attention," she said.
The Department of Health figures show that the lowest take-up of vaccinations was in the Midland Health Board area, where just 68 per cent of children aged under two were vaccinated. The greatest take-up was in the South-Eastern Health Board (86 per cent).
The results for other health board areas are: Mid-Western (73 per cent); Southern (75); Eastern (76);North-Eastern (77); and Western (78).
Dr Ray O'Connor of the Irish College of General Practicioners clinical studies task force said the figures on vaccination may even be under-estimated.
"The message must go out that these vaccinations are safe and they are effective," he said.