A PROFESSIONAL mediator who was deeply involved in previous Basque peace processes, on behalf of a European government, told The Irish Timesyesterday he was concerned that as few as 15 per cent of Eta members might be in favour of the new ceasefire.
[There are ] “ young people between 19 and 21 who have joined the movement imbued with all its mythology, and still want to participate in an armed campaign.”
He says that they have been sidelined because of the huge political pressure from Basque radicals and older, but inactive, Eta members in favour of a ceasefire.
He also believes Eta is so weakened by a long series of police arms seizures that the younger members do not have access to weapons to carry out attacks.
The mediator, observing the new process very closely though he is not directly involved, says the French authorities “fear someone will now do something stupid; expect a very shaky week ahead”.
However, he believes that if the radical Basque political movement can copperfasten the ceasefire consensus over the next three months, Madrid will make a positive response that could move things forward.
“The Spanish government understands that a police strategy alone will not solve the Basque problem,” he says.
He thinks that the new scenario could produce “surprising” political initiatives, despite the prevalent view in both the Spanish government and conservative opposition that no concessions whatsoever should be made towards Basque self-determination.
“If the ceasefire holds, there will be a long silence from Madrid, then a demand for prerequisites like decommissioning, then counter-demands from Eta. Sequencing will be all-important but, given time, this ceasefire could be a very significant development.”