GERMANY: A victory by Angela Merkel could mean great changes in European relations, writes Derek Scally
Joschka Fischer arrives in New York this morning and, miracles aside, it could be his last UN appearance as German foreign minister.
In an election campaign dominated by mass unemployment and economic reforms, Mr Fischer has still managed to extract every last drop of political capital from his foreign policy record, and the decision to keep German soldiers out of Iraq.
His election contribution has been to sow as much doubt in voters' minds about the foreign policy intentions of Angela Merkel, attacking her initial support for the US on Iraq.
"We need a clear vision and the necessary calm, whether on domestic political matters or in our considerations of Turkey," Mr Fischer said. Chancellor Schröder has gone further, calling the CDU a "danger" to German foreign policy.
But it's jobs not Iraq that is crucial for German voters this time around and, despite a last-minute poll surge, it is unlikely that the so-called Red-Green coalition will survive beyond Sunday's vote. Senior government officials say a Chancellor Merkel would make few immediate changes in foreign policy, particularly in the crucial transatlantic relationship so shaken by the Iraq war.
"I am sure she will try to improve the tone of relations between Berlin and Washington, and I would expect the Bush administration will be ready to reach out to a new German leadership," Karsten Voigt, the chancellor's transatlantic adviser, told the Washington Times. "There is a possibility that there could be frustrations for her."
In transatlantic matters, Ms Merkel could be bound for the foreseeable future by the hugely negative opinions of Germans to the US, says Julian Knapp, of the Aspen Institute, a US think tank in Berlin.
"Merkel will need different packaging and a different approach to Schröder who instrumentalised foreign policy for his own ends," said Mr Knapp.
Some observers have said a CDU victory would ring in great changes in European relations, with Ms Merkel pursuing a closer relationship with London at the expense of Paris.
That prediction has historical precedent, as does the greater likelihood of continuity, according to Ulrike Guérot of the German Marshall Fund.
"First, one should not forget that almost any newly-elected French president and many German chancellors - including Gerhard Schröder - all started by saying that Franco-German relations should be rebalanced by stronger Franco-British or German-British relations," writes Ms Guérot in a policy paper.
Looking eastwards, CDU foreign policy experts have promised continuity of relations with the Kremlin, while German-Russian observers have suggested that the two will find a "common language". That should be easy, as Vladimir Putin speaks German and Ms Merkel speaks Russian.
FDP foreign policy expert Wolfgang Gerhard, the likely future foreign minister, expects to find himself negotiating a compromise between London and Paris in the near future to secure EU financing until 2013.
"The British presidency of the EU desperately wants this, and I think there's a good chance it will succeed. But for this, the EU agricultural subsidies have to be reformed," Mr Gerhard told Der Spiegel. He said a CDU-FDP coalition would stand by its opposition to Turkey in the EU, but would not try to "reinvent" negotiations with Ankara.